SATURDAY, APRIL 27, 2024
Sunil Dias
A lot of our time at work and in life is spent making decisions. What should I wear today? What should I price my product at? Should I use Zoom or Google Meet for that client meeting tomorrow? What should I do differently in the New Year? Many of the decisions we make are routine. We’ve made similar decisions before and are clear on the outcomes of each decision. Sometimes, we’ve got a lot of data to help us make the decision. Data which can be analyzed to reach a decision. Sometimes, it’s more complicated. There is information and analysis available. Yet, it’s not enough information to fully justify the decision. In most of these cases, we use our gut feelings or intuition to make that decision.
When Charles Darwin, the father of the theory of evolution wanted to make an important decision of his life, he seemingly went with his gut. Darwin made two lists in his notebook. One list had the pros and cons of getting married. The other the pros and cons of staying a bachelor. The lists seemed to suggest that Darwin reached his decision objectively. Yet, the final decision appears to have been taken basis his gut feelings. There wasn’t any weightage assigned to the pros and cons. No final score in favour or marrying or not. Or if there were, Darwin didn’t put them down into his notebook.
What exactly is a gut-feeling? What drives our intuition or instincts? The brain is a predictive machine. When we come across new information, the brain tries to compare it to past experiences and knowledge. And, on that basis, tries to predict the outcome of a current experience. A gut feeling is when this matching happens at a sub-conscious level. We are not aware of why we have the feeling, yet the brain has used information to give us that feeling.
So, gut feelings have a basis. Yet, basing all our decisions on gut feelings can be dangerous. We could be swayed by our mood, the weather, or several inherent biases we have. A common bias is the confirmation bias. That’s when we cherry pick information to suit the decision our gut is telling us to make. We don’t use all the information; only the information which suits us. The bandwagon effect can also influence decision making significantly. Everybody has a view. Several people you know, and respect might be pursuing a certain path. That isn’t necessarily the best path to take. We often tend to take decisions based significantly on what others are doing. And often, we don’t even know we’re imitating others. Another common bias which gets in the way of our decision making is the conservatism bias. We’re attached of the decisions we’ve made in the past. Making a different decision makes us admit that we were wrong in the past. And that’s often a difficult thing to do. And so, we continue making decisions in line with what we’ve made in the past.
Gut feelings are hence both useful and dangerous. And being too rational isn’t always helpful. So, what is the middle path to better and faster decisions? Oliver Burkeman distils what the psychologists say in his book ‘Help. How to become slightly happier and get a bit more done’. He suggests 4 decision-making tricks that combine the rational and the intuitive.
Tip 1: Assess the complexity of the problem
We make decisions to solve problems or prevent problems from happening. But problems aren’t equal. In simple problems, you know the set of elements important in the solution. And most, if not all, of these elements can be quantified. Say, for instance, you are hiring for a role where the job description is crystal clear. In such cases, an objective assessment of candidates is possible. And that is the best way to decide. Contrast that with hiring for a leadership role in your organization. Then there are a lot more elements which you need to look for. Softer skills become very important. And the amount of subjectivity required during decision making increases. Before trying to solve a problem, its important to understand the level of subjectivity the decision requires. If its subjective, be ready to use your intuition to come to a decision.
Tip 2: Flip a coin
“Flip a coin. When it's in the air, you'll know which side you're hoping for” said Arnold Rothstein, the American mobster. We often agonize over our decisions. And that doesn’t get us any closer to taking a decision. Flipping a coin seems to (sometimes) have a magical effect on our decision-making capabilities.
Tip 3: Move from objective to intuitive
Every decision has data to support it. It’s important that you do not disregard information available to you. Analyse (but don’t over-analyse!) data and information available. After you’ve analyzed data, then use your intuition to get to a final decision. When your gut feelings and analysis sync, your decision making become simpler and more effective. Analysing data is particularly important when making significant decisions such as deciding your business strategy and resource allocation.
When you are in the intuitive part of the decision making, be sure to check whether you are experienced enough to use your intuition. Every decision we take has implications. The experience with past decisions gives the brain more information. This information is crucial for the brain’ predictive capability. So, a good question to ask yourself when taking a decision could be- Do I have experience in making similar decisions? If you do, your gut-feel is probably pointing you in the right direction.
Also, run through potential biases which we all have. Unfortunately, we are not aware of most of them. It helps to run through some common biases to check whether they are impacting our decision.
Tip 4: Set a deadline
Beyond a point, postponing a decision doesn’t help. Yet, when we aren’t sure of our decision, we often keep postponing it. The fact that we need to make a decision stays in our headspace till we are forced by external factors to decide. That reduces our bandwidth to do other things while we are mulling over the decision. Instead, set an internal deadline by which to decide. And keep to that timeline. You will find that deciding and moving things out of your headspace to be liberating.
Closing thoughts
All decisions are a mix of the objective and the intuitive. Be sure to differentiate between problems which are better solved using objectivity and those better solved through gut-feelings. Both data-backed analysis and your gut feelings are incredibly important. Keep listening to both. Only make sure that neither are the sole source of your decisions.
