The importance of Manohar Parrikar in holding a coalition of ambitions at bay and together is being felt within 72 hours he being out of circulation on account of his treatment in Bombay, which could be prolonged,

The exact nature of the Chief Minister’s health issues have not quite been specified, and some rumours and online articles attributing his health issues to something more alarming have been vehemently denied and rubbished. But it’s quite obvious that this is more than a stomach infection and will take time to heal and the process of recuperation can be more prolonged than originally felt.

But it is the very uncertain nature of the timing of his return to work, pushing the inhuman hours that he does daily, which has caused political unease albeit temporarily. Parrikar’s almost towering presence makes both the ruling and opposition politics go into a bit of a vacuum and the longer the Chief Minister takes to return to Goa and to his daily routine, this unease will grow.

The vacuum is first being felt in the ruling party. His sudden absence has laid bare the fact that there is no senior, active and fit leadership to fill his shoes even if it’s very brief and very temporary. Handing over charge to MGP leader and PWD Minister Sudin Dhavalikar is a clear indication, with Francis D'Souza not quite fit to hold the reigns even temporarily as he used to earlier, that short term leadership, even if it’s purely functional, has to be given to a non party leader.

It is only now that the nature of Parrikar’s role in camouflaging much of the BJP’s current problems - and that includes a second line of leadership, is coming into sharp focus. His dominance within the party had dwarfed some inherent problems of leadership, making him control the party and the government and run it as his show. A part of this was primarily, and this is something that was known, because the younger leadership existing within the party consists of outsourced leaders - Vishwajeet Rane and Mauvin Godinho being two examples - who have just been in the BJP fold, and that to out of wanting to work with Parrikar, and not necessarily with the BJP.

Even within the party fold, Calangute MLA Michael Lobo is beginning to have a few run-ins with the party over a variety of issues including the vexed taxi issue where he is unabashedly with the taxi lobby and not with the government. And the only guarantee of Lobo’s long term association with the BJP is to have Parrikar returning to active work. Any hiatus which gets longer will see the Calangute MLA, being more stringent against his party. At the same time he is unlikely to accept any leadership arrangement in Mr Parrikar’s absence, if it takes long for the CM to return to work.

The BJP is for the time being banking on the cushion and loyalty of MGP, primarily because of Sudin Dhavalikar’s equations - forced or otherwise, with the central BJP leadership. Dhavlikar is absolutely elated, even if he has been picked as head of government for a brief period. In his mind, this validates his own seniority, importance and his position in the pecking order of the alliance parties, since both MGP and Goa Forward have 3 MLAs each. But ironically, even Sudin Dhavalikar needs Parrikar at the helm to cement this importance because there is only a possibility but no guarantee that each of his MGP MLAs will be united under his leadership, sans Parrikar in full command.

And finally it is the Goa Forward which finds itself in an extremely piquant situation. Its support was specifically to Manohar Parrikar and not the party. The longer the absence of the Chief Minister, the discomfort within the Goa Forward will increase. Vijai Sardesai has a direct equation with the Chief Minister and derives a lot of freedom and flexibility in South Goa to function independently. Sardesai will get boxed in, if the absence of the Chief Minister gets prolonged. It is significant that before Mr Parrikar had to rush to Bombay, he called Sardesai and asked him to “handle things” till he returned.  Sardesai has little comfort with either the MGP or anyone else within the BJP. 

While the Chief Minister’s return to good health is wished by all, his quick return is also important to maintain the good health of the coalition and the government.