SUNDAY, MAY 19, 2024
It’s on. For the next two months election coverage is going to dominate the news in the country. Election dates to four States and one Union Territory have been announced and with major States like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam going to the polls, the interest in the elections has already peaked. Five years ago, with the exception of Assam, the BJP had not made a mark in any of the other three States and the Union Territory. The stakes therefore for the party this time are high as BJP has gone in for an aggressive campaign in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. The results of this campaign will be known on May 2 when the votes are counted.
These will be the first Assembly polls in Tamil Nadu after the deaths of former chief ministers J Jayalalitha and M Karunanidhi. The two dominated Tamil Nadu politics for decades, their larger-than-life cutouts on the streets an ever present reminder of the role they played in the politics and governance of the State. Their parties – AIADMK and DMK respectively – will rely on the legacy of these two leaders to woo the electorate in the coming weeks. Interesting is that for the past five decades, Tamil Nadu has been governed by either DMK or AIADMK but the upcoming elections could change the course for the State, as neither of the parties has a popular leader to charm the electorate. With BJP making inroads in the State, the results from this southern State will be much awaited.
West Bengal is a very different political cauldron that had started to boil and spill over long before the election dates could be announced. As BJP leaders made repeated trips to the State gnawing at the Trinamool Congress and loosening the latter’s hold on the electorate, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee reacted aggressively as her MLAs quit and crossed over to the other side. Trinamool Congress wrested power from the Communist coalition ten years ago after the Communist parties had retained power for over three decades. A decade later, Banerjee faces her first real challenge to power. It has been a querulous relationship between the State and the Centre and the recent happenings in the State have further soured the association.
Kerala has been alternating between the United Democratic Front and the Left Democratic Front. Currently it is the Left Democratic Front that is in power in the State. This is the only Leftist government in India. Unlike neighbouring Tamil Nadu where personalities play a major role in politics, in Kerala election campaigns focus on issues and the electorate votes based on their understanding of the policies. Kerala elections today assume a different kind of interest as it is from here that in 2019 Congress leader Rahul Gandhi sought and got elected to the Lok Sabha. Again BJP has little presence in the State and will try to make inroads in Kerala.
When BJP formed the government in Assam five years ago, the State turned into a launching pad for the party to spread to other North Eastern States. The party will have to retain Assam if it is to accomplish its plans for the neighbouring States. Puducherry has been in the news in recent days as MLAs of the ruling coalition quit and the government was brought down leading to the imposition of President’s Rule in the Union Territory a day before the elections were announced. This is the current political situation in the four States and one Union Territory on the day the election dates have been announced. Now will come the re-alignments in the political circles that could turn the tide depending on who reaches out to the electorate with the best possible promises.
