SATURDAY, MAY 04, 2024
Tensions between Israel and Iran escalated further last week with Tel Aviv reportedly using drones and possibly a missile to attack Tehran, while Iran claimed its troops defended against an Israeli drone attack that targeted air defences at a major air base and a nuclear site near the central city of Isfahan.
The assault is being seen as retaliation for Tehran’s unprecedented drone-and-missile assault on Israel last week.
Israel didn't wait for the Jewish holiday of Passover, nor did Benjamin Netanyahu heed Joe Biden's call to 'take the win'. The escalatory spiral is a given now in the only war that has the potential to blow out of control in possibly the most volatile region of the world. But has the last word been spoken? Given the history of the region, it is unsurprisingly unlikely.
This region in West Asia started escalating in conflict on October 7 when Hamas penetrated through Israel defenses on Oct 7, 2023, costing over 1,200 fatal casualties and taking over 200 hostages.
That skirmish has prolonged over 6 months but it has so far been localised, though, the effect on civilians and military casualties and unbearable scarcity of all kinds on civilian refugees are unimaginable and the situation is explosive, keeping the world worried. This has made the zone of conflict extended to Houthian pirates of Lebanon, activated in support of Palestine in the Red Sea as a fall out. Now the situation has further enlarged with the present exchange of fire between Israel and Iran.
Western leaders have been calling for de-escalation in the fragile region, with fears over a wider conflict erupting in the Middle East. Israel has nuclear capabilities. But it can’t persuade any of the parties through direct intervention as they have sided with Israel, as always.
How does this escalation affect the world?
Between Israel and Iran, should some kind of military operation break out, the countries immediately involved are: Jordon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Kuwait, Iraq, etc, who will be in the battle zone and their participation cannot be ruled out.
This will have a tremendous effect on the world oil market and world economy.
India also has strategic ties with Israel, especially when it comes to defence and security.
New Delhi is a top buyer of military equipment from the country and Israel supported India in the Kargil War by providing ammunition. The India-Israel trade ties have become stronger and trade is around $7.5 billion.
Both India and Israel have common concerns about terrorism, having suffered major losses during the 26/11 attacks. The relationship between New Delhi and Jerusalem has flourished in the last 10 years under the Narendra Modi government. This has led to India backing Israel soon after the October 7 attacks even though the country does not label Hamas a terrorist organisation.
At the same time Chabahar Port acts as a gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia and is important since Pakistan does not allow land transit to Indian goods.
The country imports 80 per cent of its crude oil from the region. In case of an escalation, oil supplies from West Asia are likely to be affected and this will badly affect India's economy as we visualise now present progress will be thwarted. This will also badly impact India's prestigious project India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor.
Tehran, so far, has invested in and relied on proxy militia groups, which expand the regime’s influence while still insulating its leaders from risk of escalation. But now Iran has become physical. It has two options: either fire missiles or go for physical operation in which case Iran has to take support of Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Houthi and other militia groups. Israel has, perhaps, no option but to use its powerful airpower.
All said and done, the crisis has potentially wider ramification on energy prices, shipping in the Gulf and Red Sea, security of migrant workers, including eight millions Indians, use of Chabahar port, creation of the Economic Corridor to Europe and various other economic and political effects.
India has fostered equally good relations with both Iran and Israel, whereas the US has lost its influence, basically being Israel oriented. The Indian Navy has shown its presence in the area around Arabian Sea when it seized an Israel linked container ship with 17 Indian crew members by Iran near Strait of Hormuz. The Indian Navy has earned lots of accolades from all over the worlds for its selfless work just to keep international maritime routes free of obstruction. The time has perhaps come for India to intensify its diplomatic channels. The three major powers China, US and Russia have their own axe to grind. India can take advantage of its neutrality and proximity with Israel, Iran, the US and Russia and should explore ways to diffuse the crisis.
Iran has already sought India’s help. Will Israel listen to India? That’s a million dollar question.
