National lessons from Jharkhand election results

Is there a national message in the Jharkhand election results? In May 2019, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a decisive majority In the Lok Sabha election, gaining a formidable majority, which allowed it to take forward its manifesto promises. But, that election victory has not been replicated in the following months in any of the State Assembly polls. On the other hand, in the last 18 months – before and after the National elections – BJP lost power in the States of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Maharashtra. It has just about managed to stay in power in Haryana and wrested Karnataka from the JD-S and Congress combine, getting a majority in the by-elections. Is this telling the BJP something?

In the battle for Jharkhand, there is no one party, which has emerged as the winner, though the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) combine has a majority. After five years in power in Ranchi, the BJP is down 12 seats from the last election five years ago, while the JMM, Congress and RJD pre-poll alliance is up 21, with JMM, emerging as the single largest with 30 seats after the elections results were declared. BJP is in second place with 25 seats. Those figures do tell a story of a State having - if not rejected totally, then at the very least - shown a discomfort of being with the BJP. 

For the BJP, this is the fifth State in which, they have not been able to form a government in, after the respective Assembly elections. The State Assembly election results show a very different trend from that of the Lok Sabha elections. The people have made a clear distinction between the two. In the case of Jharkhand, the BJP can’t take solace in the claim that it is the single largest party in the State. Though Haryana is in their kitty, it was not an overwhelming victory and the party could hold on to the reins only after entering into a post-electoral agreement with the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP). For the BJP, this is time to introspect on where and how, their plans went off track. Is it the leadership or is it the policies or is it both? For the party, this is a failure and there is not colouring it in any other manner. These were States that they held and they have lost them.  

On the other hand, for the Congress, the results in all States have been encouraging but not so thrilling. The party has a long road ahead to return to the position it once held in Indian politics. This party needs to look deeply into its leadership. In the States it won, it did so after the national leadership stayed away from the campaign. What does this say of the Gandhi family that heads the party? Is it time to hand over the reins to someone outside the family? Congress has been led by either Sonia Gandhi or her son Rahul Gandhi since 1998, with the former at the helm for 19 years before she handed over the chair to the latter, only to take it back again. Congress needs new ideas and these can come with a change of guard.

In Jharkhand, however, it is quite a clear case of the people rejecting the BJP. There were several tight contests as the leads swung both sides while counting was taking place and the margins in the final victories were close. The gains for JMM and Congress are overwhelming. They are now certain to form the government in the State with JMM, the senior partner. But they have to deliver. The State, created in the year 2000, is rich in mineral resources, but has a large percentage of its people living below the poverty line. It has been showing growth; and this is what the new government, which takes office in Jharkhand, will have to focus on.