Goa could be in for a spot of political instability if the Bharatiya Janata Party is unable to find a leader acceptable to the party MLAs as well as to the coalition partners to lead the government. Just two days after the BJP core committee and leaders of the alliance partners met Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences in New Delhi, the major party in the coalition has been forced to scout for a chief ministerial candidate as Parrikar’s health condition deteriorated and there is a question mark on his continuation as the head of government.

Strangely, after the meeting on Friday at AIIMS, it had appeared that the government under Parrikar would survive for a while longer. BJP leaders had even announced that a much-improved Chief Minister would return to Goa next month around the time of Diwali and take charge of the administration again. That changed when Parrikar was discharged from the instituted on Sunday and flown to Goa in an air ambulance after his condition deteriorated, forcing the BJP to look for a new Chief Minister. This has escalated political activity in Goa, with reports coming in of the BJP National president Amit Shah calling the regional party chiefs to New Delhi for a consultation. In any decision on leadership change, the two regional parties assume major importance.

A replacement Chief Minister acceptable to all coalition partners won’t be easy to find. When the BJP had managed just 13 MLAs in the 2017 Assembly elections, the choice had fallen on Parrikar as the regional allies had made his leadership of the government a condition for their support. Parrikar, who was Defence Minister at that time, had resigned from the Union cabinet and returned to Goa to head the coalition government. In the past 19 months the coalition partners have often asserted that they are in the coalition because of Parrikar and their support is not to the BJP. The assertions have included that the Parrikar government will complete its full term. None have spoken of a BJP-led coalition remaining in power for five years.

While the coalition partners may use the argument of changed circumstances to keep the government afloat, at least for a brief period, a consensus on the choice of a Chief Minister who will be able to strike a balance among the regional parties and Independents will be the most difficult to find. BJP has few in its group of MLAs who can assume the leadership mantle and play mediator between the regional party leaders, whose personalities tower over that of the BJP MLAs. Roping in a leader from outside the MLA group would result in a by-election that the party does not want, and lead to some dissidence among the current MLAs, which at this time the party does not need.

Dissidence, and not just among its MLAs, is the reason why the BJP, for the past few weeks, has turned down the idea of a leadership change as it does not want to face the Assembly in a confidence motion, as three MLAs, including the current Chief Minister, would not be in a position to attend the session and vote. The party didn’t want to risk a vote that could give any one of the allies the chance to withdraw support. Against this background, a round of political instability is certain to descend upon the State. Given that the administration and governance has slowed down for much of this year, the current situation does not inspire confidence that the immediate future could be different. An unstable coalition will only lead to further chaos in governance, that Goa can ill afford.