FRIDAY, APRIL 19, 2024
Sujay Gupta
Denial is a double-edged sword. But by definition, it cuts both ways. The Congress in Goa is in a default denial mode. It refuses to accept that it is no longer the de-facto principal opposition party. It hopes that the one end of this sword will allow the party to penetrate into its erstwhile strongholds and acquire the anti-BJP vote. Though the thinking is entirely wishful, based on a fig leaf of hope and a past that gives a glimmer of hope (The slogan: “We got 17 seats in 2017”) let’s not deny the Congress that simple albeit ineffective pleasure.
The other end of the double-edged sword is this. That it is so lulled into living in the past, and mistaking it for the present, that it doesn’t see an elephant in the room which is not just beginning to crowd it but put its mark in quite a few places. The Aam Aadmi Party is that elephant in terms of having the potential to irritate and even define the Congress’ prospects at different levels of governance. The quick caveat to this is that this premise should not be seen purely in terms of AAP’s impact in the next Assembly elections, but its growing touch-points in Goa’s political space at different levels.
(Before one proceeds further, a disclaimer is needed because midway through the writing of this, the defeated ZP candidate from Navelim, Pratima Betsy Coutinho, after uttering several mouthfuls against the seasoned Navelim MLA and her party senior, Luizinho Faleiro accusing him of not campaigning for her in the ZP polls resigned and within hours joined AAP. This move of AAP roping her in immediately should be assessed independently and not linked to any analysis of the AAP’s added footprint in different parts of Goa. AAP could well have taken more time over this as this completely flies in the face of its adhered to and successful policy of developing grassroots unknowns who have the trust of the locals. This is why when Hansel Fernandes with no political connections won as a ZP candidate in Benaulim it was like a breath of fresh air. Its own candidate in the ZP elections in Navelim, Matilda D’Silva who fought a gallant fight and got a mere 95 votes less than Pratima Coutinho, is much more in the mould of typical grassroots fighter than someone like Coutinho. This is why these decisions, notwithstanding the progress it is making, makes us wonder if AAP itself is missing out on its own elephant in the room, which could be looking at some quick-fix decisions that do not quite fall in line with its own bottom-up template. But that’s another story and time will tell but prima facie inducting a Congress defector isn’t good optics).
Going back to its Navelim Zilla Panchayat elections, it was peppered with red flags for the Congress with questions popping up all over. Of course, the first off the block will be to ask how did the Congress, in its own bastion and with a former Chief Minister as MLA, lose a Zilla Panchayat election? It's simple, really. Traditional Congress voters are gravitating to local options and when options present themselves, they will vote, even for an independent or a small party-backed candidates like Edwin Cardozo (Cipru). The fact that AAP managed such a good showing in Nevelim puts it in the centre stage of available options in some and growing pockets.
Therefore, the Congress is not just in danger of electoral oblivion if it doesn’t set its house in order drastically, it is in danger of losing relevance. While Pratima Coutinho alleges that Faleiro backstabbed her and didn’t campaign for her (claims which have been denied and challenged by Faleiro) it is a little presumptuous to assume that Coutinho who moved her electoral roll address from Margao to Navelim on the eve of the elections got 2523 votes and came second because of her own votes.
Here’s a quick look at the AAP dashboard in Navelim. Of the 23 wards, it was ahead in 3, second in 8 and joint second with Congress in 1. In wards 7,11,14 (AAP was first here) and 15 which falls under the Navelim Assembly constituency, the AAP was ahead of Congress. In booths 18, 20 and 23 under the Velim constituency, it was behind by marginal votes (1 vote in ward number 18). AAP also led in ward 17, its lead over the Congress amounting to 130 votes.
What do these very micro deep dives tell us? It gives us a macro view. Here is a party with a fledgling organisation and virtually no elected representatives making these inroads. Most of the other parties dismiss AAP as an outsider Delhi party, hurling sobriquets like “jhadu party” or “topi wallahas” or a “bunch of Hindi speaking outsiders”. But here you have people in the heartland of Salcete, hardcore Goans of absolute steel and zeal for the soil, giving AAP enough votes to be in contention for a Zilla Panchayat seat. And its candidate is a local Goan from the minorities.
And that is the bottom-line. The more AAP gets localised and the Delhi model is transformed into a Goa model with people in the grassroots willing to vote for it in panchayat or Zilla Panchayat elections, the relevance of AAP will grow as opposed to the growing irrelevance of the Congress.
Where AAP has succeeded is that it has managed to place itself on the shortlist of choices the anti-BJP voter will have. And more importantly, if these ZP poll trends are any indication of a larger reality, then AAP could well be one of the claimants of the anti-Congress vote. And a crumbling Congress may well have to give way to regional forces like the Goa Forward Party or the Aam Aadmi Party.
But here’s a word of caution for AAP too. If it runs the race to win the next elections in any which manner, it will make some fundamental mistakes like inducting members of other parties hastily and deviate from its bottom-up process of building grassroots leaders. The more AAP remains AAP, the better its chances of succeeding. And Navelim and Benaulim and even its inroads in the Panjim civic polls (where its pick in the citizen’s panel came second in five wards of which one was lost by a single and even one seat where Nelson Cabral Francisco emerged victorious), has proven this. Its heroes are the likes of Matilda D’Silva and Hansel Fernandes and not party hoppers.
These are the straws in the wind. AAP must ensure that these straws are seen and respected and not swept away by their own broom.
