SATURDAY, APRIL 27, 2024
Alexandre Moniz Barbosa
Sometime this week, India is set to overtake Brazil in number of coronavirus cases and reach the second spot after the United States of America. Most of the numbers that add to the India total come from just a few States, mainly Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and some others. Goa, currently with figures of 500 new cases a day does not contribute much to this all-India figure that on Friday showed a rise of over 76,000 cases in a single day. Yet, there is a lot that one can learn on studying how Goa’s COVID-19 cases have been rising.
If you follow the trajectory of Goa’s growing COVID-19 curve, there were the faint beginnings of a flattening early last week. After the two peaks of over 500 cases in a day, which came twice in the space of less than a week – on August 9 and August 13 – the number of daily cases had begun to show a slow decline. It stayed in the 300s for a few days, crossed 400 on August 20 but then dropped again to even fall to below 200 new cases for a day. If that trend of dropping cases were to hold for a few more weeks then the number of active cases would also fall and we could actually hope to see Goa reaching towards a green zone again. It was a tiny bit of hope, but there was some optimism nevertheless.
But that changed almost immediately and Goa saw a spurt of cases over the next few days with cases rising per day to 392, 497, 456 and then crossing the 500 mark again to touch 523 in a day on August 28, taking the curve back to a steep ascending arc. There was always a big if in the flattening of the curve as this being the festival season, the chances that there could be a spurt in cases in the State by the end of the month of August did exist, a fact admitted by the chief minister, who said the cases are now rising. That spurt in fact came quicker than expected, wiping out the gains that had been made. It will now be several weeks before Goa can be seeing the beginnings of another flattening of the COVID-19 curve.
Yet, at some point of time in the last week, there certainly had come a slowdown in the number of cases and if there is one thing that we can learn from this is that social distancing and wearing of masks to avoid contagion is beginning to prove that they can be effective methods in the battle against COVID. To that effect, the State has done something right. There is no other manner in which Goa could have brought down the number of daily infections – if even this was for just a few days – other than the people themselves taking precautions. But to make any difference, the numbers had to fall far more, which they didn’t and instead rose again.
Doctors point out that lower numbers of new infections is not necessarily a sign of lower new cases, but that high numbers is a positive sign that testing is increasing and that is the manner in which to go. If increased testing is the way ahead, then why was the community testing that had been suggested in the past, turned down by the government? And, if this is how it works, will there be community testing in Goa now?
That aside, it is, however, important to get the number of new cases down, as once they are at a manageable figure the contact tracing of those infected can become more effective to stop the further spread of the virus. Now, with around 500 persons testing positive for COVID-19 every day, and thousands turning up for tests on a daily basis, tracing all the contacts of the patients and getting them tested is not a watertight procedure. There will be some leakages that will pass on the infection to others. To achieve this, the number of daily infections has to come down to single digits before the State can actually begin to claim that there is a flattening of the curve. Can Goa achieve this?
If the State is able to bring down infections, it could be a success story for the country. Today, Goa does not have any good figures to boast of in the COVID situation. Goa’s rate of infection though is still high at 16,606 confirmed cases (as on Friday) which works out to 11,070 cases per million of population which is much too higher than the all India figure of 2503 cases per million. It is over three times the world average that stands at 3180 cases per million. In that respect Goa has already got just over 1 per cent of its population infected by the novel corona virus. The State cannot avoid these unpleasant statistics now, but what can be avoided is allowing the spread of the virus even further.
There is today, not a single urban, community or rural health centre that has been spared by the virus that has spread across the State. How did that happen and why is Goa’s per million rate higher than the Indian average is something that the State has to study once this pandemic settles. Look at Margao Urban Health Centre, on August 1 it had 110 active cases, but four weeks later on August 28 it had increased to 518 cases. On the other hand the Vasco UHC, that had been a focal point in June and July, has seen a decline. Similarly, cases are rising in Panjim, that for long while despite the spread in other parts of the State had not got even a single COVID case.
The spread is therefore in other areas that had not seen a spurt in cases earlier. Whatever has been done in Vasco to bring down the cases apparently has worked, though it took a long period to do so. All the authorities have to do is replicate this elsewhere.
