Alexandre Moniz Barbosa
The monsoon of 2020 will probably be remembered for a long time as the wettest in living memory. As Goa struggled with the COVID-19 pandemic that has resolutely refused to abate and a new normal in living and working conditions due to this virus, it also had to contend with the wettest monsoon in a hundred years that could be a harbinger of a new normal in weather conditions – changing patterns. The State ended the four month period of June to September with 41 per cent more rain than the normal, as the rain guages recorded the seasonal rainfall at 4201.7 mm or 165.4 inches. The last time the State had come anywhere close to this figure was in 1961, exactly 59 years ago when the rainfall had been counted up to 160 inches.
This has been indeed a high amount of rain, as the average for Goa is 2975.6 mm or 117.14 inches, and though the season has officially ended, the withrawal of the monsoon has not yet started which means there will be more rain in the current month. For that matter, October has already seen some rain, which will be counted as post monsoon showers, and not added to the monsoon total.
The pattern of the monsoon in the past decade is interesting to study, as the weather has lived up to its reputation of being unpredictable. It has been above normal six times, below normal at other times, but the oscilation in the amount of rainfall has been high. In 2014 it was 3 per cent above normal, in 2015 it was 20 per cent below the normal, the following year in 2016 it was just 1 per cent below normal and in 2017 it was 14 per cent below the average, and continued in the same trend in 2018 when it was 19 per cent below normal. In 2019 there was a rise, when it was 33 per cent above normal and now in 2020 it is again 44 per cent above. There has been no consistency in the monsoon pattern in the past years.
Further studies of the monsoon of just the past decade, and the temperatures during the rest of the year, could possibly show a link to climate change. The fact is that there have been reasons for the increase in rainfall this year, and the factors attributed to the increased rain this year include a low-pressure belt formation in the Arabian Sea, Cyclone Nisarag, low-pressure area in Bay of Bengal, cyclonic circulations, offshore trough. Had these factors not existed, what would the rainfall amount have been? More pertinently, were these factors normal for the season? It is difficult to remember so many weather changes in a single season, and that makes answering these questions tricky but they remain relevant and could do with more research, which the Meterological Department should undertake and give replies to them. A couple of years ago, the United Nations General Secretary had said that India was the third most affected country by natural disasters since 1995. That’s a relevant point to remember when we look at changes in the climatic conditions.
Changes in the weather patterns are an indication of the climate change phenomemon and cannot be ignored. In Goa, the monsoon is the best seaons to determine these changes, as temperature changes in the rest of the season can be minimal. Pertinently, there was a late arrival of the monsoon and there will also be a late withdrawal. All these factors need to be seen in a wider perspective to establish whether there is a any pattern that emerges from it all. From the lay point of view, there is enough evidence to suggest that we need to be concerned with the weather pattern and take measures to control the change in climatic conditions.
It is interesting that the IMD in Goa has been clear that the season was different from previous years by not just for recoding the highest seasonal rainfall but also by the consistency of rainfall in the four months, when there were just two days when there was no rain recorded at any of the stations. Compare this to last year, when though the final rainfall figure was 33 per cent above the average, it was an uneven monsoon. There was a late start to the monsoon, then it rained in fits and starts, until there were copious amounts of rain and then in August it got relatively dry again. The changes cannot be ignored, they are real but are often overlooked as other issues take precedence.
Against this backdrop of the abundant monsoon, on October 2, Gandhi Jayanti, the day on which the nation takes a pause to remember the Mahatma, a group of around 30 persons walked from Collem to Vasco, with people along the route joining them for short stages of the walk. Theirs was a peaceful attempt to educate the people on the disastrous effects that the felling of thousands of trees in the Mollem forest for three development projects will have. By the time the walk ended in the evening in Vasco, a number of people had already walked part of the way, and a memorandum was presented to government against the three projects that are planned at the Mollem wildlife sanctuary.
The three projects – doubling of the SWR track, highway expansion and laying of power transmission lines – that are planned need to be considered vis-à-vis the environmenal costs. The felling of thousands of trees in an eco-sensitive area, that comes under the Western Ghats in part could hasten the changes in the weather patterns. Global warming is not just the rise in temperatures, but extreme changes in the normal weather conditions that can vary from droughts to floods. What Goa is experiencing may be the very early stages of some minimal change, which makes it imperative that these are reduced as quickly as possible. This calls for a concerted effort from all concerned – government, administration and the people – to minimise the effects of environment degradation on the climate. It is a challenge, but it can be met.
Alexandre Moniz Barbosa is Editor, Herald. He tweets at @monizbarbosa