Today, many scientific methods of weather forecasting have developed. In the ongoing Internet era, many websites accurately predict the weather and have also earned credibility.
However, in rural areas, traditional ways are still used to predict the arrival of the monsoon. By the end of the month of May, everyone’s eyes turn to the sky like a Jacobin cuckoo. The Meteorological Department predicts the arrival of the monsoon based on the direction of seasonal winds blowing from Southwest; however, the traditional ways used to predict the monsoon have been proven to be more accurate. There is no known scientific theory to back the traditional predictions, but, based on experiences, they have proven to be more reliable. One of the crucial harbingers of monsoon are birds. Once birds start building nests before Mrigashirsha Nakshatra, this signals that monsoon is near. The nature of monsoon is forecasted based on the height at which the nest is built and also on the type of the branch. This is how farmers prepare themselves for kharif farming.
Bird migration is another unique feature at the beginning of the monsoon. Once the Southwest seasonal winds bring the monsoon to the Konkan coast, some of the species of birds travel South-North along with the wind. When they find ecological conditions favourable for them, they make it a temporary residence and return back to their native region once the monsoon is over. The biggest sign of monsoon’s arrival is the common hawk-cuckoo bird or brainfever bird, which are known for their loud, piercing call. The farmers especially, wait to hear the call of brainfever birds as it acts as natural annunciation for them to begin with the farming work. Migrating from Africa, Jacobin cuckoo heralds the onset of monsoon in India. Hints from Red-wattled lapwing are unique. There is a possibility of less rain if this bird lays eggs on the side or in nullahs. It is the opposite if they do so on the surface.
There is also a relation between rat holes and the monsoon. If the rat holes are in the direction of the water flow in the fields, then there are low chances of a satisfactory monsoon. If the rat holes are found on bundhs or at a height, then the chances of satisfactory monsoon in the region are more.
There is a strong possibility of the monsoon arriving after three days when the sky around the setting Sun turns red. The three-day rule is also applicable when wasps start gathering around street lamps. In rural areas there is strong belief that once sparrows on the trees start bathing themselves in the dust, the monsoon is set to arrive in the next three days. Since the water clouds are at a height, the sound when an airplane flies through the sky is also an indicator of the monsoon. There are more chances of satisfactory showers if the local breed of mangoes do not grow in abundance.
Locals confidently proclaim that monsoon is due in four days when the sun wears a bistre shade during the month of June. It is also considered that the more the number of tamarind fruits, the bigger the monsoon. If the colour of chameleons’ heads turn red and the monitor lizards sit in the holes with their mouths outside, then the monsoon is expected in four days. The wild termites which destroy trees in the forests do not have wings otherwise, but when the swarms of winged termites are seen flying around then one can be sure that rain is near. When ants shift their eggs to a safer place, when reptiles venture out from their holes, when red crabs make a run towards the sea, the fisherfolk are assured that the monsoon is here.
India Meteorological Department presents weather forecasts by collecting and examining the information with the help of advanced equipment, satellites, radars, etc, and by observing situations such as ‘El Nino’. Yet, the traditional Panchang is still read today in the age of computers. Nature claims for the monsoon to shower in May while Panchang says June. IMD will announce the date of monsoon as well. The traditional and modern knowledge will be tested for sure.