MONDAY, JUNE 17, 2024
Rohit Sinha
I have good news and bad news about Goa’s roads. The good news is that the number of road accidents is down 30% from a decade earlier. The bad news is that the total number of road accidents per lakh population on Goa roads is nearly 6 times the national average.
Most of the explanations commonly put forward for why Goa roads remain so deadly, focus on broad structural factors such as vehicle density or influx of tourists, but a review of the evidence suggests this may not be the complete picture. The total number of road accidents per 10k vehicles has gradually reduced over the recent years, and the number of tourists is only just returning to pre-pandemic levels. So what explains the high mortality rate that is rising to levels we saw a decade ago?
Car-centrism, or more specifically vehicle-centrism, in Goa is clearly part of its road safety problem. Goa tops car ownership per household among Indian states with 45.2%, Kerala second highest with 24.2% - both states have similar habitation and land ownership spread. Goa’s land use and development has mimicked American suburbs, making residents heavily reliant on private transportation.
However, even adjusting for distance driven, Goa accident rates remain 16 % higher than Kerala. Perhaps the reason Goa roads are so unsafe stems from how they drive, not how much.
On vehicle size, there is evidence that larger vehicles are more deadly to other vulnerable road users in almost any crash. The growth of car registrations vis-a-vis 2-wheeler registrations in the last 4 years has nearly been the same in Goa, as are their share of accidents in the state - 35% vs 39% respectively. Where they differ is that an accident involving a 2-wheeler as the impacting/crime vehicle led to a fatality occurring 6 times
more than an accident involving a car. Yes, cars are safer but the data shows that their risk of fatality in an accident has been equivalent to whether a self-accident was reported or they were hit by a similar/larger vehicle.
For 2-wheelers, the risk of fatality by self-accident or being hit by another 2-wheeler was nearly 2 times more than being hit by a larger vehicle. Vehicle size no longer seems to be a dominant factor in the road fatalities in Goa.
So are fatalities happening because there are people on the streets who happen to be caught in an unfortunate position? To some extent. Roughly 1 in 5 instances have resulted in a pedestrian or bicyclist fatality because of being hit by a motorized vehicle in Goa. Vehicle density is another commonly cited reason for road accidents. More tourist and rental vehicles on the road driven by people with little regard for safety, buttressing the idea that more vehicles on the road naturally imply more accidents.
It is tempting to believe this to be true, but what the data tells us is that 2 out of 5 accidents in Goa happened in ‘open areas’, i.e., locations which normally do not have any human activities in the vicinity. 85% of all road accidents happened on straight roads, and majority of them (69%) were in rural areas. This tells us that the absence of vehicular density is where road accidents are happening in the state.
If it is not vehicular density then maybe the cause is bad driving conditions? Monsoons can bring hell for driving conditions in the state. Worse is the physical conditions of the roads - ongoing road works, unmarked speed breakers, potholes, fixed obstructions - the list of woes of Indian roads are endless. Despite difficult driving conditions, we find that 93% of the road accidents in Goa happened on clear or sunny days, killing 256 persons out of the 271 persons killed on Goa roads in 2022. Different times of the year have no significance in terms of what months we witness more accidents, it is more or less uniform throughout. Potholes, ongoing road works have zero instances of accidents. These are pretty startling and unobvious statistics. and yet another to dig deeper on why Goa has such a high incidence of road accidents relative to its population.
So what’s going wrong? The overlooked factor appears to be not merely the increasing number of vehicles on the road, poor conditions, or sheer bad luck. The responsibility squarely lies with the drivers on Goa’s roads. According to official data, 91% of all violations leading to road accidents were due to overspeeding. While one can debate whether overspeeding is the primary cause or a consequence of other issues like drunken driving or poor enforcement, it is clear that bad driving behaviour is a significant factor in road safety in Goa. This conclusion doesn't even account for internal behavioural factors such as the perception of control, thrill-seeking behaviour, or poor judgment (e.g., not wearing a helmet or seatbelt, using mobile phones) that can escalate the severity of an accident from a minor injury to a fatality. Addressing these behavioural issues is crucial for improving road safety in the state.
To be clear, driver habits don’t form in a vacuum, and they can and must change. Everything from the design of roads, to substantial investment in public transport, to the implementation of stricter and consistently enforced laws on drinking, speeding, mobile phone usage, and seatbelt-wearing has been proven to shape driver behaviour effectively. When considering all the evidence, it is clear that Goa’s road safety record is neither a result of mere chance nor broader industry-wide trends. For Goa to achieve developed-level road safety, commensurate with its status as one of India’s most prosperous states with the highest GDP per capita, a significant shift in driver behaviour is essential. This will require coordinated efforts from policymakers, law enforcement, and the community to foster a culture of responsible driving.
(The author is an economist and a strategy consultant)
