FRIDAY, APRIL 26, 2024
Binayak Datta
The G20 Managers and Sherpas huddled together on the hectic night of the 16th last, at the lovely beach resort of Bali, finally brought out the usual 52-plus-points-strong “G20 Leaders Declaration, 2022” bringing curtains down on the 17th G20. The Next Presidency comes by rotation to India.
I felt it could be useful to take a peek at a) the backdrops of the summit, b) at the achievements of the summit, c) at the progresses that these 20 nations already did, since they met last in Rome for the 16th summit last year and finally d) what it means to India as President of the G20.
The summit unfortunately near-coincided with the more important (but apparently of lesser priority), COP27 on Climate Change, at another resort at Sharm El-Shaikh in Egypt. I’ll make a few small remarks on outcomes of that summit as well – it’s important this time around, for India.
My Take: Before I start, just to recapitulate, the G20, as a group accounts for around 80% of World GDP, 70% of International Trade, two-thirds of the Global Population and 60% of the world's land area as also it stands accountable for almost 75% of Global Carbon Emissions! Now, imagine its potential powers. Tasked therefore with international economic and financial stability, climate change mitigation, and sustainable development, migration, digitisation, employment, healthcare, economic empowerment of women and development aid, (but not in scope, is Security). The unfortunate part is, there’s no written charter, neither a secretary nor a permanent secretariat – and the inevitable happens – never seen a formal Action Taken Report.
a) The backdrop this time: Whilst the after-effects of the Pandemic and its subsequent waves continued to disrupt availabilities of key materials and components, the Ukraine Invasion by Russia earlier this year and consequent global disruption in logistics and scarcity of bulk chemicals and minerals impeded world economy with high inflation and energy crisis. The strong-dollar pushed prices up sky-high resulting in tightening of rates. Growth projections were re-revised down and down, latest another (-)0.5% world-wide. The backdrop of this G20 summit had to be difficult.
b) Did we achieve thru the summit? A “Joint Communique”, with “most” countries (for the nth time) condemning the Russian Invasion of Ukraine and the immense human suffering and “exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy – constraining growth, increasing inflation, disrupting supply chains, heightening energy and food insecurity, and elevating financial stability risks”, reverberating with Mr Modi’s now famed statement to Putin, “today’s era must not be of war..” Wasn’t quite naturally enjoyed by the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Laprov, who walked out. The Turkey-UN initiatives in the Black Sea Grain agreements with Russia, facilitating smooth movements of food-stuff and fertilisers have, quite appropriately been lauded. Setting up of the Pandemic (PPR) fund hosted by the World Bank for US$ 10 billion has been appreciated. A lot of space has been devoted to enhancing the “voice of low-income countries” et-al; the 52+ points seem so very right, straight out of the pages of a 6th Standard Moral-Science Book at School. Just baffles me, with such pious thoughts in its declaration, how a member country possibly invades another, not even one-tenth its size and bombards innocent citizens or another on the sly encroaches and squats on our verdant Himalayan Landscapes. But that’s for another day.
I’m more concerned with the Climate Change, reduce warming 1.5 by 2030 and Net Zero by 2050 when members are actually subsidising fossil fuels, investing in huge coal-block power plants, not a word against them.
In the COP27 Sharm El-Shaikh declarations, there are concrete “assurances” for a loss-and-damage fund to be funded by the polluting rich nations, but it’s sad that the summit was a mute spectator to silence on phase out of fossil-fuels, an agenda which was agreed at Glasgow.
My other disappointment was with “Seamless Travel” between member Countries. If it takes a thousand days for an “Interview” for a simple Visitors’ Visa, what “Seamless” travel are we talking of really? I’m also quite surprised nobody spoke of IPRs of Vaccines and Life Saving Medicines, a subject so talked of during the Pandemics.
Not also a point on G20 antidumping initiatives falling by 50% in one year globally (70% in India). Lastly, what the precise position is, on the Pillar-Two Global Anti-Base Erosion Model Rules resolved last year – what stage of implementations are they in.
The emerging scenario: It’s good finally, now an opportunity for India to prove itself as the President of the G20. Yes, there are challenges waiting. Let’s examine:
1. India’s embarrassments from voting (or standing-out) alongside China and Pakistan on global platforms on Ukraine, will continue to prick now and then. I think the foreign office’s repeated statements of “happiness” in Russian Oil or that the “West-learning-to-live-with-our-Ukraine-stand” are best avoided, they do not help consensus-building processes.
2. Multi-locational Inflation and a strong-dollar could tend to delay FTAs under some pretext or the other, the Australian FTA and the UK FTA are already overdue.
3. IPRs and R&D uses for vaccines and life-saving medicines.
4. Higher Professional Education and Exchange Programs.
5. Clarity on India’s finality on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Policy and on the SCO, in view of the hot-and-cold ties with China’s visible expansionism.
And before I conclude: India will have to get global powers to stay focussed on long-term economic challenges of food and energy shortages, human and plant nutrition, climate-change, and IPRs and R&D in health-care. A time-bound action-cum-funding plan, with earmarked responsibilities, through a monthly reporting system, would in my view be highly appreciated, rather than over-stress on extravagant stage shows, 200 events at 50 venues and colourful optics.
(Binayak Datta is a finance professional)
