PANJIM: Goa’s mean annual temperature has increased by over 1°C since the beginning of the 20th century till date (1901-2018) and is projected to increase by 2°C by 2030s, says a study conducted by NABCONS.
The State had appointed NABARD consultancy services – NABCONS – to prepare the State Action Plan for Climate Change (SAPCC), project concept note and detail project report.
Salient Features of SAPCC
As per the NABCONS report, Goa’s mean annual temperature has increased by over 1°C since the beginning of the 20th century till date (1901-2018), much of it during the period of 1990 to 2018. The mean annual rainfall in Goa has increased by 68 per cent over the period 1901-2015.
It says that with increasing rainfall the inter-annual rainfall variability in the State has also increased, especially since the 1970s. While mean annual rainfall in the State has increased, moderate to light rainfall days (IMD category I) in Goa have declined over 1901-2015 period, whereas very heavy and exceptionally heavy rainfall events (IMD category III) in the State have increased by more than 100 per cent.
“Mean annual temperatures (model ensemble) in Goa may increase by around 2°C in 2030s compared to 1901-1950 period, and further by around 4°C by 2080s under high emission scenarios. Goa will start experiencing heat waves (>40 C) beyond the 2040s, as maximum temperature increases towards the century end under high emission scenarios. Minimum temperatures are expected to rise even more by up to 8°C by the century end under the high emission scenarios,” it says.
The report says the mean annual rainfall in Goa is projected to slightly decline under high emission scenarios, which under low emission scenarios is projected to slightly increase.
“The flood vulnerability analysis from the State reveals that 14.73% of the land is under 15 metre elevation, much of it in the coastal zones and are severely vulnerable to flooding both from extreme rainfall events and sea-level rise. In terms of vulnerability from floods and sea-level rise the talukas Salcete, Tiswadi and Bardez are most vulnerable,” the SAPCC says.