PANJIM: India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast near normal rainfall for Goa as well as the country with weak El Nino conditions during the monsoon.
In a statement for the long range forecast of the 2019 Southwest Monsoon rainfall, IMD stated “Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be near normal. Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 96% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%.”
Speaking to Herald, MET Goa scientist Dr SD Sanap said, “The June to September monsoon rainfall is forecast for all India and it is generally used by policy makers to ensure better planning for the season. The long period average for the country is 89 cm, however, as of now we do not have the LPA for Goa.”
He said that the distribution of the rainfall will be normal. The IMD forecast stated, “Overall, the country is expected to have well distributed rainfall scenario during the 2019 monsoon season, which will be beneficial to farmers in the country during the ensuing kharif season.”
Responding to a question on the El Nino phenomenon, Sanap said, “El Nino is always an important factor for deciding the seasonal rainfall for the Indian region. It is now in initial stage and was in neutral condition a couple of months ago. Now it is in a developing stage and therefore will not affect much, but a developed El Nino would have affected far more.”
The statement of IMD said, “Weak El Nino conditions are likely to prevail during the monsoon season with reduced intensity in the later part of the season. The sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific (El Nino/La Nina) and Indian Oceans (Indian Ocean Dipole-IOD) which are known to have strong influence on Indian monsoon are being continuously monitored.”
Sanap further said that IMD will issue the second stage monsoon forecast during the first week of June 2019 which will be more accurate about the rainfall during the season.