THURSDAY, APRIL 25, 2024
For the BJP this election has become all about mathematical calculations and clever strategy. And one of the tactics that it is likely to deploy in the forthcoming Assembly elections is to take the “independent” approach in a few constituencies.
And this is more than just speculation. The buzz within the party is clear and coherent that in many seats, it’s better to support Independents and others rather than make them contest on a party ticket. This holds especially true for minority MLAs who defected from the Congress and made an opportunistic switch to the BJP for positions and power in the name of “development”.
An indication was given when the Chief Minister was asked during a visit to Nuvem whether the local MLA Wilfred D’Sa (aka Babashan) would be given the party ticket. He sidestepped the issue and said that he doesn’t decide on tickets. The party president does. And then Wilfred D’Sa himself said the people of the constituency want him as an independent candidate, to which the chief minister said that D’Sa would always support the BJP.
Last week, during a meeting to launch the campaign of kts party candidate from Fatorda, Damu Naik, the CM said, “Though we won’t field candidates on the party ticket in all eight constituencies. I am sure all BJP-supported candidates will win.”
There is a pattern at play here. Those who are called BJP “supported” are actually independent candidates, who will be “looked after” by the BJP.
The BJP realises that it cannot fight on all seats on the party symbol, in the middle of a clear anti-incumbency wave. Therefore, reliable party sources say that they will want independent proxies to do the job for them.
Why is the BJP taking the independent route?
While the independent route is being looked at across Goa wherever necessary, it is a fact that a majority of minority defectors of the BJP are from South Goa. The BJP has never really made any electoral inroads into Salcete taluka and coastal South Goa from the organizational point of view. In the last Lok Sabha elections, it was South Goa that went against the trend and gave victory to a Congress candidate and defeated BJP’s sitting MP Narendra Sawaikar. Between 60 and 65 per cent of the Congress total vote in South Goa came from the minority-dominated Salcete.
Even in 2012, the BJP backed independents to get its numbers up from Salcete. From Avetano Furtado to Caitu Silva, the BJP fielded independents and even rewarded them with important positions with Furtado becoming Goa’s sports minister.
What is interesting is that in 2017 about half of BJP’s 13 MLAs were from the minority community. But it is the Congress that won six out of eight seats and five of them were minority MLAs of which three defected to the BJP. It is this betrayal of the mandate which hurt the people of Salcete. With the nonperformance and anti-people decisions like double-tracking, coal pollution, etc, the people have decided not to back the Congress defectors who joined the BJP. Of course, the candidates and BJP themselves feel that contesting as independents would make their positions better, the ground reality is otherwise. However, it is up to the people, and they will make the final choice.
The BJP understands two things (1) The BJP’s decision to break the Congress and get minority MLAs into its party has not been liked by the people and (2) Its official candidates in the Southern coastal belt constituencies have little chance to make an impact.
However, the independent candidate strategy as a part of its election strategy is not limited to backing independent candidates. Fielding dummy independent candidates to cut the anti-BJP vote will also be a part of the BJPs poll strategy in North Goa.
The fundamental difference between 2012 and even 2017 is that this time, the defections of Congress MLAs and the state of governance have given BJP cause for major worry. Fighting not independently but through independents could be the BJP’s last hope in Goa and particularly South Goa.
