29 Nov 2020  |   05:19am IST

On the brink of submergence by migration

As Goa plans a year-long bash to celebrate the 60th year of Goa’s Liberation, ALEXANDRE MONIZ BARBOSA suggests that this period would also be the perfect time to restructure the plans for the State and the people and take a decision to save Goa for the future generations
On the brink of  submergence by migration

ALEXANDRE MONIZ BARBOSA

The intention of having a year-long celebration to commemorate the 60th year of Goa’s Liberation from the long 451 years of colonial Portuguese rule has been announced. A celebration committee has also been constituted. It is a great occasion to celebrate, and the 60th anniversary is commemorated as the diamond jubilee, so it makes the year extra special. But in the din of celebrations, we cannot overlook the need to be focused on policy making and planning for the future. The occasion is, besides a cause for celebrating, also a reason to look forward and give new direction to the State. Currently, the State is in the midst of turmoil, where a significantly large section of the people are registering their opposition to the three linear projects – double tracking of the South Western Railway line, expansion of National Highway 4A and the Tamnar power project. The 60th year of Goa’s Liberation would be the perfect time to take a decision to save Goa for the future generations, who will one day celebrate the centenary of Goa’s Liberation. Shouldn’t we bequeath them a Goa that they will be proud of?

The projects – the three linear projects mentioned and others that include the international airport at Mopa – that are being proposed and actively defended by the authorities, are being billed as infrastructure projects that are needed for the State, projects that will bring benefits to Goa and the Goans. But here’s a relevant question: Which Goa and which Goans? There is a purpose in asking this question, for here is something that Goa needs to pay close attention to in the year 2021.

“Over a period of time, unrestricted migration into this tiny State is threatening to make the Goans a minority in their own State,” the representation seeking special status, made to the then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and signed by then Goa Chief Minister (late) Manohar Parrikar in June 2013, had stated. Parrikar had led an all-party delegation from Goa to New Delhi and the memorandum, he had carried along hadn’t just warned of Goans becoming a minority, but had forecast a date as to when this could happen. “The apprehension is that by 2021 the migrant population will outnumber the local Goans,” the representation had said. 

This representation was made at a time when there was a group of persons that was actively leading a movement for special status. That movement has since subsided, and special status for Goa – always a difficult proposition – is now but a distant dream. But, the year 2021 that the government’s representation had focused on is not distant; it is just a little over a month away. So in the 60th year of our liberation, when we Goans will be celebrating having ousted the colonial power, are Goenkars going to be reduced to a minority in their own land?

That representation was an eye-opener to the situation in the State, and since it came from the government, there was little dispute as to the authenticity of its claims. But, seven years later, as the State pushes for large scale infrastructure projects, have we forgotten the statements made in that representation? Or have we chosen to deliberately ignore them? Perhaps it is the latter, as we Goans get wrapped up in the quotidian and the present.

Here are some more statements from that representation that further proves the point of how migration is, quickly and not slowly, changing the face of Goa. “The increase in population of the State from around 5.8 lakhs at the time of liberation to 15 lakhs in 2012 is primarily attributable to migration,” the memorandum had mentioned. It had pointed out that the average growth rate of population, prior to Liberation was 5 per cent in the first five decades of the last century, which rose to 34.77 per cent in the first decade after Liberation, and was 8.17 per cent in the decade before the latest census. Yet, all along the decades after Liberation, the fertility rate was comparatively very low, with the current (in 2013) being 1.8, whereas the ideal is 2.1. “The statistics reinforce the perception that the huge increase in Goan population is as a result of migration and not due to natural rate of reproduction among the ethnic population,” the memorandum had concluded. This is something that Goans have been saying for long, but the confirmation hardly ever came, except in that document.

In the light of this, the question of the development projects being undertaken at the present time being for which Goa and which Goans becomes very relevant. If Goans are quickly becoming a minority in their own State, it is time to revise the roadmap for the State’s growth. It is time to wake up to the fact that the Goenkar is going to be submerged by the migration that is occurring, just as many of its fields already are underwater. It may not, at this time, be possible to reverse the trend as there is no way to stop migration, but surely it can be slowed down to give Goans a chance to remain masters in their own land.

The infrastructure development that is currently planned and the rapid urbanization that is making inroads even into the rural areas has the potential to change Goa and convert it into what people across the country already believe it to be – a city rather than a State. A decade from now, this could well be the reality that we will face as Goa takes the form of a city-state. Goa’s agricultural holdings have already shrunk considerably making way for real estate, but the 2011 census had already found that there were some 60,000 houses that were locked. Who is Goa constructing homes for? Increasingly, over the years, not only will migration increase, but the number of houses that remain empty for most part of the year will also rise. What will happen is that there will be periodic pressure on infrastructure and services – water, power, food, and waste management – that in a manner Goa is already experiencing today, with the tourism industry. The reliance on food imports will rise correspondingly, as will the uncertainty of what to do with the waste. This could well happen long before Goa celebrates the next big number in jubilees of its Liberation Day, which would be the Platinum in 2036.

As Goa cruises along at speed on the freeway of development, it has to momentarily step on the brakes, pause for a long moment and take a reality check as to what actually is its destination. The future is something that Goa has never really planned holistically, allowing itself to be led by the short term goals of the myopic vision that most governments have been known for. This has often led to disastrous results, which means that this trial and error method of the past has to change, if Goa stands a chance to remain Goa. 

Goa has in the past successfully battled projects that could have changed the face of the land. Take for instance the Special Economic Zones (SEZ) that had been planned, and even land allotted. These SEZs had the possibility of leading to a massive influx of people into the State, submerging the Goan population long before 2021. Yet, it is not just the inward migration that is causing the imbalance in population, but there is also the outward migration, which has seen large numbers of people – in some cases chunks of populations of entire villages – seeking greener pastures in lands abroad. One of the priorities for Goa should be to retain its population by stemming the brain drain. In the absence of jobs this is going to be a difficult proposition. Industry needs infrastructure, so Goa has to list out the infrastructure that it requires to attract the right kind of industry that will provide jobs for the available Goan talent. The 60th year of Goa’s Liberation should be utilised to do this, rather than merely spending Rs 100 crore to celebrate what occurred six decades ago. That will make the year more meaningful, especially if we take the pledge to save Goa for those who will come after us.


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