No other village than this, keeps reminding me of “Everywhere was singing, all over the house was singing, and outside the house was alive with singing, and the very air was song”, as Huw Morgan narrates adoringly of his tiny village “Gilfach Goch” of the Edwardian South-East Wales in Richard Llewellyn’s “How Green Was my Valley”! And then…the AK47s and M4s cruelly shatter the tranquility, terror reigns supreme for a nightmarish half-an-hour, slaughtering 26 innocent unsuspecting, unprotected, revelling tourists on the lush greens of Baisaran, Pahalgam in full view of the social media.
I don’t intend spending time in finding faults today, the Union Government having already spoken out on lapses in security and I’m quite sure adequate corrective actions would follow in time. I let the matter rest. Let’s look at: a) The Indian response and impacts foreseen; b) The Pak retaliation and impacts foreseen; c) The Economy after all this; d) The Global Community and its support; and the way ahead!
a) The Indian response: India’s reactions came the very next day. A crisp four-point proclamation: i) The Indus Water Treaty 1960, be held in “Abeyance” until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism; ii) The Attari Check-post shuts immediately; iii) Inactivation of visas of most categories held by Pak visitors here in India and iv) Downgrading and downsizing the Pak diplomatic offices in India.
The Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan co-signed also by the World Bank is the charter for Water Allocation, Dispute Resolution, Financial Contribution and Data Sharing (eg. fore-warning of floods and droughts) between the parties, with regard to the Indus Water. As on date, we are well within our allocations of our share. In fact, we can take much more. To consume or store more, we need more investments in infrastructure which are already in the pipelines. That needs fast-tracks to productively use the water now wasted downstream excess of our past allocated share on to the Arabian Sea and to the hinterlands in between.
This position will improve with better desilting of the link-canals and the catchments. Moreover, the Indus and the Sutlej actually have their origins in Tibet. There is a China angle also looming outside this treaty!
I do not think therefore there would be an effective impact as the situation stands today. What can stop is the data sharing part as of now, but yes in the long-term, water is as important as it is, and there are needs say, in Rajasthan and Haryana for the paper Industry and for strengthening the Yamuna in Eastern Haryana.
The other diplomatic actions are already in place and they would play their roles effectively as neighbours being shown their places!
b) The Pak response: The usual denial mode, they state they have “no connections with the terrorist groups” in Kashmir, they close the Wagah Border, block overflights of Indian Aircraft, suspend all trade with India and suspend all Bilateral Treaties eg. the Shimla pact and more!
I don’t know what they gain by blocking over-flights, other than plain harasments to the already harrowed passenger having done an eight-hour travail belted to his seat having paid more for rerouting his ticket. Whom are they targeting really?
The Shimla Agreement 1972: This agreement laid down that bilateral issues would be settled by the two nations through bilateral negotiations or by other peaceful means as mutually to be decided; Non-interference in each other’s internal affairs and the Line of Control shall be honored and not unilaterally altered.
By the act of suspending this agreement, the bilateral machinery would be put to rest and Pakistan could cry help of a third party for a settlement. Also, understand, if the veil of the LOC is lifted, the entire Border issue could be up for re-negotiation or hostilities and isn’t it open for marchers to march thru to the POK and Gilgit & Baltistan? I seriously doubt the wisdom in this action of theirs!
That would of course mean hostility, complicated now by the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), but now with an internationally acceptable excuse!
Scrapping the other Treaties like “Prevention of Inadvertent Nuclear attacks” and “Pre-Notification of Ballistic Missile Testing “could spell veritable dangers to the whole world, similarly the cooperation on drug trafficking being swept away!
The two shots they fired on their own feet are the one on Maritime Disasters and the one on Telecom Links! Nobody loses more than Pakistan themselves!
c) The economy and its impacts: Whereas bilateral trade impacts are not significant, there could be disruptions in future trade through South Asia in areas of regional integration like the TAPI Gas Pipeline. Defence spendings could stifle Viksit Bharat time-lines. Losses in Investor Sentiments, particularly FDIs, Tourism and Aviation.
d) The global community and its support: Whilst every nation which will issue a Statement, did issue a Statement unequivocally condemning the act of perpetrating this horrific incident – I should have seen more nations condemning Pakistan (even indirectly) for participation in its heinous program of cross-border terrorism. Very few seemed to have even cared to notice the trashing up of the Nuclear Apocalypse and Drug Trafficking open-door possibilities arising from the junking of the two agreements I explained. The question here is reaching out with data and numbers to nations with meaningful support, particularly those with veto-powers at the UNSC.
I think an outreach programme is fast called for in this area! At least for Israel, France, Japan, Australia, UAE and Saudi Arabia. France holds a veto at the UNSC.
And before I part, whilst we must remember in silence the innocent 26, we lost in the Greens of That Valley, let’s remember the local unsung youngsters, the pony-riders the Syed Adil Hussains never for a moment looked back, went all out to help and never returned!
Let the guilty of this anti-humanity crime not get lost in the maze of shameful divisive narratives!
(Binayak Datta is a finance professional)