The penchant for "appropriating" successful names and rejoicing at imaginary proximity with them based mostly on racial reasons, singing paeans to them, I think is rather a uniqueness in this part of the world. The way the social-media is abuzz with Rishi Sunak and his much-imagined "ties" with our country is quite an amusing read, for example.
Rather than intruding upon his personal space, I thought it's good to reflect on the impacts likely to be seen post-second-change of guards at 10 Downing Street. (I had already kept a set of ideas ready during the month 45 days ago, to share here) I have now to radically revise those. First: where we are, with regard to the UK and its stands on multilateral international issues like on the Climate Change, on the Russian war, on Human Rights, on South-China Sea and on Terrorism. Then, bilateral issues like settlement of the outstanding post-Brexit FTA and finally, is there a lesson hidden somewhere for India or for any other country in the 45-day-old fiasco there?
My Take: Yes, first the lesson: It’s futile making tall promises of the pie-in-the-sky, your own people will bring you down when they realise, they go down themselves. The second lesson, legislators act fast and take the plunge as soon as early signs appear, not wait for personal-pecuniary assuagements.
Well, we see now a leader in the UK, who knows his subject well, has shown clear signs of measured and well-thought of actions, particularly during and post the economic turmoil their country stared at after the pandemic. A leader who has been one of the most popular politicians at UK after the days of Tony Blair, his response to the pandemic with significant additional spendings and additional grants and support to business and monitoring and managing a huge deficit (probably one of the largest peace-time deficits in the country, a staggering 350bn Pounds. His increase in Corporate Tax Rates and a 5-year freeze in Personal Allowances were irksome to Industry, while in my considered view – it was unavoidable and the decision reflected maturity and smelt of pragmatism. Even with all of this his control over the cost-of-living crisis in my view, was highly inadequate.
I’m also a little wary of three areas where his stated stand would certainly not be completely compatible with ours; a) on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine where he stood solidly for sanctions against Russia, b) his resolute position on lowering net migration and proposed amendments of statutory definitions in related laws and c) his stated position on LGBT Rights. The overall view I gathered of him, is that of a pragmatist-left-centrist in the (Right) Conservative Party of UK.
The emerging scenario: The emerging relations between India and the new regime in UK (couched of course in plush diplomatic cushions) was however clear in terms of priorities, if I read well the press interviews of Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, late last week, who continues in his post in the new regime (and therefore important), and back I go, to the second para up there, on where we are, in terms of our bilateral relationships, and he states in emphasis the continuity of UK’s Indo-Pacific tilt and “build on the strong partnership with India, UK already has”. On terror and its funding, the Secretary made it clear that UK shall work with “friends around the world” to counter terror wherever it’s perpetrated.
On Russian invasion in Ukraine, the regime will continue with its strong support for economic sanctions against Russia – nothing much new and an area of incompatibility with us, politely stated. My interest was on the Indo-British Free Trade Agreement (the FTA) in the kitchen, where in my view we need clarity on our long-term Foreign Trade Policies especially after our walk-out from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Policy summit and here the Secretary was diplomatic to give away nothing excepting the customary “looking for opportunities to work closely together”, the following part on “stream-lining of processes” tended unintendedly to send my brows sky-high, especially when he appeared to support the “...overstay of Indians...” remarks of Home Secretary Suella Braverman after the Leicester riots last month. I had thought we were pretty close to sealing the all-important Indo-British FTA before end of October itself, with the Boris Johnson-regime, with a wide-spectrum of strategic, economic and defence manufacturing fields. Given that, Sunak already has a difficult task of promoting trade in post-Brexit Europe (with strident competition from France and Germany), a positive forward-looking FTA with India with its huge market for components would have been ideal, a signal I clearly missed in Cleverly’s replies! In the vast area of Defence Equipments’ Manufacturing the Open General Export Licence to British OEM Exporters for components could be good, but India has to stress on IPRs and R&D transfers. Again, tough given that France is already there with Rafale and Air-Bus offset clauses! What I actually meant is – the going might not be that easy for Sunak as writing this column is. And before I conclude: Truly the situation, Bertie Wooster (In Wodehouse’s “Very Good Jeeves”), surely would have said to Jeeves…“As Shakespeare says, if you’re going to do a thing you might just as well pop right at it and get it over.” I think that’s of priority…(to India)!
(Binayak Datta is a finance professional)