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Delhi Assembly Elections: AAP and BJP Gear Up for High-Stakes Battle Amid Shifting Political Dynamics

Herald Team

As the national capital goes to the polls for its 70 Assembly seats, all eyes are once again on the fierce electoral contest between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) led by former Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Despite its dominance in national politics, the BJP has failed to make inroads into the Delhi Assembly, struggling to cross double digits in two consecutive elections.

This election presents a new challenge for Kejriwal, who faces anti-incumbency sentiments after nearly 12 years in power. The political dynamics have also shifted significantly, with the AAP and Congress contesting separately after their alliance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. This division of opposition votes could work in BJP’s favour. Additionally, the presence of Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in Muslim-majority constituencies could further fragment the electorate.

The BJP, having lost six consecutive elections in Delhi, is making yet another attempt at victory. Previously, the Congress dominated the capital for 15 years before AAP’s meteoric rise. However, the Congress has been a diminished force in Delhi, failing to win a single seat in the last two Assembly elections. Now, with a renewed strategy, the party is aiming to reclaim its lost voter base, particularly among Muslims and Dalits.

Kejriwal’s leadership has been tested in recent months. His imprisonment created a leadership vacuum, leading to disarray within AAP ranks. Upon his release, he took dramatic steps to regain public trust—resigning as Chief Minister, vacating the official bungalow, and aggressively engaging in outreach programs. Whether these efforts will translate into electoral gains remains uncertain.

The Congress, meanwhile, faces challenges beyond Delhi. The party’s organisational structure is in shambles in states like Haryana, Bihar, and Maharashtra, with many districts lacking leadership for over a decade. Political analysts argue that unless Congress revitalizes its cadre, it will continue to struggle against regional parties that have eroded its traditional vote bank.

Women voters could play a decisive role in these elections. With 72.36 lakh women eligible to vote, their influence is significant. In Maharashtra’s Assembly elections last year, BJP’s ‘Ladki Bahin’ scheme contributed to a sweeping victory. Recognizing this, all major parties—AAP, BJP, and Congress—are actively courting female voters with welfare promises.

In the 2020 Delhi elections, AAP secured nearly 60% of the women’s vote, while BJP garnered only 35%. A slight shift in this demographic could alter the outcome, making women’s support a crucial factor in this high-stakes battle.

Muslim voters, comprising 13% of Delhi’s population, are weighing their options carefully. Many see AAP as a flawed but viable alternative to BJP, which they perceive as antagonistic toward minorities. The Congress, on the other hand, is attempting to reclaim Muslim support, bolstered by Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ campaign. However, Congress’ ability to convert goodwill into votes remains questionable.

Some analysts argue that while Muslims prefer Congress ideologically, they may strategically vote for AAP to prevent BJP’s rise in Delhi. The dilemma highlights the complex interplay of identity politics and electoral pragmatism.

The BJP’s recent victories in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh suggest a well-oiled electoral machine. The party surprised many by appointing unexpected candidates as Chief Ministers, signaling an organizational shift away from personality-driven campaigns. In Maharashtra, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) played a crucial behind-the-scenes role in ensuring BJP’s win. Will the RSS influence be a game-changer in Delhi as well?

Some speculate that BJP’s top leadership harbours concerns about post-Modi succession. If elections become too reliant on a single charismatic figure, the party could face internal power struggles in the future. Meanwhile, questions are being raised about Kejriwal’s ability to govern if legal hurdles prevent him from assuming the Chief Minister’s office again.

Delhi’s electoral landscape remains unpredictable. The AAP, despite its governance record, faces credibility challenges due to corruption allegations. The BJP, though formidable nationally, has consistently underperformed in Delhi. The Congress, once a dominant force, is struggling for relevance.

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