Robin Roy
Despite signing a de fence pact with Pa kistan, Saudi Arabia moved fast to clarify its stand. Officials in Riyadh em phasized that the deal was not directed at any country, least of all India, with whom relations are at an all-time high. “Our relationship with India is more robust than it has ever been. We will continue to grow this rela tionship and contribute to regional peace in whichever way we can,” a senior Saudi diplomat was quoted by the media. Though the agreement with Islamabad, endorsed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sha rif, states that any aggression against one will be treated as aggression against both. Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, attended the signing, under lining its importance. However, one has to take note of the timing of the pact. The countries inked the pact days after an Israeli air strike in Doha on Septem ber 9 killed several Hamas negotiators, including rela tives of senior figure Khalil al-Hayya, during talks over a possible ceasefire. Qatar immediately reacted and denounced the strike as a violation of sovereignty and international law. The attack further galvanised Arab and Islamic governments, which led to an emergency summit in Doha on September 15, where leaders condemned Israel and urged immediate stronger measures to deter further attacks.
Why strikes on Qatar matter The unprecedented as sault on a Gulf state—a key US ally and Gaza ceasefire mediator—has sent shock waves through the region. By striking a sovereign state that has been actively host ing talks at the request of the United States, Israel’s action goes beyond a mili tary operation. Also, Israel’s brazen move will likely force Qatar to reassess its medi ation role. If this reassess ment leads to Qatar stepping back from the negotiating table, it could effectively halt ceasefire negotiations and force Hamas’s leadership to less-accessible locations, making any future talks dif ficult. Qatar has mediated nego tiations between the US and the Taliban, the signing of several peace deals for Leba non, Yemen, Darfur, and Pal estine, and hosted political offices for groups like Hamas in Doha. In addition, Qatar operated as a key mediator in var ious international hostage crises, leveraging its unique geopolitical standing and relationships with a wide ar ray of actors, including both state andnon-state entities. Qatar’s Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrah man Al-Thani called the strike an assault on medi ation itself and criticising the West for its failure to re strain Israel.
Losing faith in Washington The ‘apparent’ US ‘fail ure’ to prevent strikes on Doha has certainly botched up things further. Follow ing the strikes, it is appar ent that Arab states will now explore their defence integration not because Washington pushed for it, but because they no longer see the US as willing or able to act especially af ter the strikes on Doha. It may be recalled that Wash ington once pressed Arab states to work together against Iran. Today, Israel, especially after the Doha strikes is a major concern for all of them. Implications for India Pakistan has long used foreign alliances to boost its domestic position and internationalise disputes such as Kashmir and Tur key, a NATO member, has already endorsed and ech oed Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir and in the past supplied hardware and personnel during conflicts with India. India’s deep defence and energy ties with Israel may also somewhere come into focus with the anti-Israel thrust of Arab nations es pecially now after the Doha strikes. However, as of now as things stand, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi remain close partners of New Delhi, and Saudi officials insist their relationship with India is strong. New ties The wordings in the pact leaves open some key ques tions. Saudi officials describe it as comprehensive, cover ing “all military means”, but whether this extends to nu clear deterrence is not clear as of now.
That ambiguity is not clear and can be termed as deliberate, pushing for flexibility and deterrence. A new order The strikes in Doha have pushed for a major rea lignment in the West Asia region. The Saudi-Pakistan defence pact also indicates anger at Israel and clear frustration with the US. The strikes have, meanwhile, en sured that Arab and Islamic states to seek independ ent mechanisms of defence shield. Meanwhile for New Delhi, it will be challenge to bal ance and find a navigable route to keep old friends and strategies both in good hu mour. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s De fence Minister Khawaja Mo hammad Asif said the coun try’s nuclear programme “will be made available” to Saudi Arabia if needed un der the two nations’ new de fence pact. India on Friday said it ex pects Saudi Arabia to keep in mind “mutual interests and sensitivities” in the wake of Riyadh sealing a strategic defence pact with Pakistan. The agreement states that “any aggression against ei ther of the two countries shall be considered as an ag gression against both”. “India and Saudi Arabia have a wide-ranging stra tegic partnership that has deepened considerably in the last few years,” External Affairs Ministry spokesper son Randhir Jaiswal said. “We expect that our stra tegic partnership will keep in mind mutual interests and sensitivities,” he said. Jaiswal was responding to a question at his weekly me dia briefing.
The “Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement” was signed by Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Abdulaziz Al Saud and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Wednesday. Sharif, accompanied by Pakistan Army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir and Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, was on a visit to Saudi Arabia.
(Robin Roy is a Senior Journalist and former Sen ior Associate Editor, O Heraldo, Goa)