The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has persisted for over three years, causing immense devastation and reshaping global geopolitics. Recent reports indicate that US President Donald Trump has engaged in discussions with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, aiming to broker a deal that could potentially end the war. This development has sparked intense debate: Can Trump’s diplomatic efforts genuinely bring peace, or is this yet another manoeuvre in the high-stakes political
chessboard?
Trump’s communication with Putin, along with upcoming meetings between Russian officials, the United States, and Saudi Arabia, suggests a renewed push for negotiations. While these interactions have raised hopes, the fundamental question remains: What will such an agreement entail? Previous diplomatic attempts in the early stages of the war failed to yield a sustainable resolution, and scepticism looms over whether this round of discussions will be any
different.
For Ukraine, the prospect of negotiation is fraught with challenges. If the proposed deal demands significant territorial or political concessions, it would undoubtedly be met with resistance from Kyiv. At the same time, Russia faces mounting pressure. The economic toll of war, compounded by heavy sanctions and rising casualties, has put Kremlin in a precarious position. A diplomatic resolution could open pathways for the easing of sanctions and economic recovery
for Russia.
A major point of contention in this situation is Trump’s direct involvement. Unlike the Biden administration, which has worked relentlessly to isolate Russia diplomatically, Trump appears more willing to engage with Moscow. His recent phone call with Putin and intentions to meet in Saudi Arabia signal a departure from the current US foreign policy strategy. Notably, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has indicated that Trump and Russian officials have not been invited to the upcoming discussions, raising concerns about transparency and legitimacy.
European nations, which have contributed nearly $140 billion in aid to Ukraine, also find themselves in an uncertain position. If Trump and Putin proceed without consulting European allies, it could undermine NATO’s strategic unity and jeopardise the collective response to Russian aggression.
One of the thorniest issues in these negotiations is territorial sovereignty. Since the war began, Russia has claimed control over approximately 20% of Ukraine, including four additional regions that remain contested. Despite Russia’s firm grip on occupied territories, Ukraine continues to resist any settlement that would legitimise these territorial gains.
A potential agreement could involve a phased resolution of these disputes over the next decade, allowing for a structured diplomatic framework. However, given Russia’s history of territorial ambition, Ukraine remains wary of any deal that does not guarantee the full restoration of its borders.
Beyond territorial concerns, Ukraine’s security remains paramount. Kyiv has long viewed NATO membership as a vital safeguard against Russian aggression, while Moscow perceives Ukraine’s NATO ambitions as an existential threat. Trump’s diplomatic approach suggests that he may explore alternative security guarantees, such as Ukraine joining the European Union while forgoing NATO membership. This compromise was reportedly discussed in the now-defunct 2022 peace talks and could resurface in current negotiations.
While this solution might appease Russia in the short term, it does little to address Ukraine’s security needs. Without NATO protection, Ukraine would remain vulnerable to future military incursions, making any peace deal inherently unstable.
A sustainable peace agreement must include credible security guarantees for Ukraine. Presently, around 200,000 foreign troops are deployed in Ukraine to deter further Russian advances. However, Western nations are unlikely to sustain such a large military presence indefinitely.
Trump’s role in these talks will be scrutinised heavily. If his engagement brings about a legitimate and lasting peace, it could reshape global geopolitics in unprecedented ways. If not, it risks becoming yet another failed attempt to end a war that has already cost thousands of lives and destabilised an entire region. The world watches as history unfolds—whether for better or worse remains to be seen.