India’s decision to include caste enumeration in its upcoming decennial census, announced on April 30, 2025, is a high-stakes gamble. Promising data to tackle deep-rooted socio-economic disparities, the census could empower marginalised communities and refine affirmative action policies. Yet, it risks opening a Pandora’s box, potentially igniting a divisive ‘Mandal II’ scenario akin to the caste-fuelled upheavals of the 1990s. As Congress and the BJP execute ideological U-turns to back this move, India faces a critical question: can it harness this exercise for inclusive development, or will it deepen divisions in a nation already fractured by caste tensions?
The census’s most significant impact could be its ability to deliver precise data to address inequality. Caste remains a persistent barrier — Dalits face discrimination in employment and housing despite qualifications, and dominant Other Backward Classes (OBC) sub-castes often monopolise reservation benefits. Granular data could ensure resources reach marginalised sub-castes, refining policies on education, jobs, and political representation. For instance, Bihar’s 2023 survey, which found 63% of its population as OBCs and Extremely Backward Classes, led to a 65% reservation quota, showing how such data can shape policy.
However, the risks are real. The census could entrench caste identities, sparking a ‘Mandal II’ scenario where communities demand higher quotas, challenging the Supreme Court’s 50% reservation cap. The Mandal Commission’s implementation in the 1990s triggered protests and reshaped politics; a repeat could inflame tensions, especially in caste-sensitive states like Bihar. Categorising thousands of castes and sub-castes is a logistical nightmare, as seen in the 2011 Socio-Economic and Caste Census, which reported all kinds of errors. Respondents may misreport caste identities to gain benefits, undermining data reliability. Rising reservation demands could empower regional parties to mobilise OBCs, deepening political polarisation and diverting focus from universal development goals like poverty eradication and educational reform.
The ideological shifts by India’s major parties add complexity. Congress, once anchored in Nehru’s vision of a casteless society, has embraced caste census under Rahul Gandhi, framing it as a tool for proportional representation to woo OBC and Dalit voters. This shift risks alienating its broader base while betting heavily on caste-based mobilisation. The BJP, historically opposed to caste enumeration to preserve its Hindutva narrative of Hindu unity, has reversed its stance — likely under pressure from allies like Nitish Kumar and with Bihar’s elections looming. This pragmatic pivot aims to counter Congress’s narrative but could backfire if census data fuels widespread quota demands, fracturing the party’s coalition. Both parties’ U-turns reflect electoral calculations more than long-term vision, risking the entrenchment of caste-based politics over national cohesion.
Caste, after all, is a uniquely Indian phenomenon — deeply embedded in the country’s social fabric but also a relic of inequality. While there is no merit in pretending it doesn’t exist, neither should its revival as a political tool be celebrated as progress. Even the Constitution’s framers visualised affirmative action as a time-bound corrective — not a permanent framework. Dr Ambedkar warned that caste should not define public life. A caste census that ends up reinforcing social divisions risks undoing decades of effort to build a more egalitarian society.
The caste census’s success hinges entirely on its execution. Robust methodology — including unambiguous questionnaires, trained enumerators, and transparent data processing — is essential to avoid the errors of previous attempts. Public trust must be earned to pre-empt accusations of political bias, as seen in some state-level surveys. The broader implications — from delimitation to women’s reservation — will rest on the quality and credibility of the data. A poorly executed caste census may harden identity lines and weaken national unity. But if carried out with integrity and used judiciously, it could serve as a tool to fine-tune social justice — enabling marginalised groups to access opportunity and dignity without reinforcing old hierarchies.
India stands at a crossroads. It cannot afford another divisive conundrum. A well-executed caste census could illuminate pathways to equity, but if mishandled, it risks fuelling discord and political opportunism. The legacy of this exercise will depend not just on what is measured — but on how the nation chooses to act upon it.