How warm will the world become over the next decades? If the latest United Nations report is to be believed, this will be to the tune of 3.1 degrees Celsius before the end of the century, if the upward graph of global warming that we see now continues at this pace.
If countries implement the reforms that have been discussed at successive climate summits over the past years, then the best we will do is an increase of 2.6 degrees by 2100. Even that is well over what is seen as a ‘safe’ global warming limit.
As the United Nations Environment Programme report suggests, this essentially means that the goal to keep global warming to below 1.5 degrees of pre-industrial levels is almost dead now.
The chief reason for this is, as always, the gap between policy and action. The report clearly states that countries have not done enough to cut carbon emissions as promised in every meeting since the Paris Agreement back in 2015.
According to some reports, the 1.5 degrees ‘safe’ limit will be reached in the next decade, going by current trends of global warming. In a hypothetical scenario, if countries were to stick to their pledges and fully implement the required policy changes, the greenhouse gas emissions would fall by a maximum of 10 per cent by 2030, when compared to 2019 levels. That would be nowhere near the 42 per cent drop that is required if the world were to stick to the 1.5 degree target, says the report.
The biggest stumbling block for implementing these climate goals has been the inability of the world to find a suitable substitute for fossil fuels. Apart from some of the most developed countries in the world – for example, Norway, which uses over 90 per cent renewable energy – almost every other developed and developing country is a fossil fuel guzzler.
The G20 counties account for 80 per cent of all greenhouse gas emissions, and India and China, both of which are part of G20, are yet to see their emissions peak. Some of the oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia have suggested that cutting down on fossil fuel consumption be considered as one among multiple options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Climate change as a political issue has been at the heart of heated global debates over the past many decades. Developing countries like India and China have contested that the developed world can’t foist climate goals on them after they have reaped the economic benefits of industrialisation – and climate change is a fallout of that – over the past one-and-a-half centuries. And with the prospect of Donald Trump soon returning to the President’s chair in the US, which has been the biggest climate polluter in the world historically, there is a chance that all climate goals will get upended.
However, the report also suggests that while the task ahead is quite uphill, all is not lost yet. According to UNEP, there is a 70 per cent chance that emissions will fall in 2024 across the world, provided that countries stick to their projections of switching to cleaner technologies.
The next climate change conference is slated to be held this November in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, and a lot depends on how countries can be persuaded to agree to stricter climate norms. Among other matters, $100 billion is the annual financial package being proposed as aid to developing countries to meet their climate targets.
What, then, can regular citizens do apart from praying? Small things to begin with. Supporting businesses that have renewable products as part of their DNA could be a good place to start.
In our personal lives, all of us can make little changes that add up to a greater whole. If a distance is walkable, don’t take an automobile. Switch off the electrical appliances when you’re not in the room.
Buy and eat stuff that grows locally, since transporting exotic food items from faraway places also increases one’s carbon footprint. Carry a bag with you at all times so that you don’t have to ask for a plastic carry bag when you decide to shop. Recycle and reuse, as this is a key to sustainability.
Ultimately, the fate of global climate depends on policy calls that will be taken at governmental levels across continents. At the same time, every individual is part of the unfolding climate crisis. While influencing government policy may not be in the hands of regular citizens, choosing to cut their own carbon footprint is something that everyone can look to achieve. Every little bit helps.