On August 5, Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, a four-term leader of Awami league and daughter of the nation’s founding father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, was forced to resign and leave the country.
This development signals the end of an era of mutual bond for a country emotionally closely tied to India, the relationship which had been deeply rooted during Bangladesh liberation war.
The present instability in Bangladesh has direct and profound security implications for India’s Northeast region, a strategically sensitive area. It may also increase the sensitivity of the Bay of Bengal and also the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
The Sheikh Hasina government has been playing a crucial role in curbing separatist movements in India’s northeastern states, notably through actions taken against insurgent groups like the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN), which had previously operated from bases within Bangladesh. These efforts culminated in notable peace agreements, including the ULFA Peace Accord in 2023.
In contrast, the main opposition party BNP has historically leaned toward Pakistan. Tarique Rahman, the acting chief of the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), is allegedly having ties with Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Reports suggest that the recent political upheaval in Bangladesh might have been influenced by covert support from both Pakistan and China.
Rise of Bangladesh in 1971 started with violence and, ironically it seems to be continuing till date when entire Bangladesh has turned out to oust Sheikh Hasina, the Prime Minister, who resigned and fled.
Way back in August 1975, there was a similar outburst of the Bangladeshi people, who wanted to remove the founder of Bangladesh Sheikh Mujibur Rehman. He was the most hated man of that time and was killed by two army majors. He was believed to have become the most corrupt and autocratic person with a failing economy and clamping democracy. The history is again repeating itself. This time it is Mujib's daughter, Sheikh Hasina.
Since then, there has been disturbed administration in Bangladesh with frequent administrative disruptions, with either the military taking over or political parties failing to give a stable government. It has had a history of political assassinations. There had been murders of the head of the state, unholy competition for power between the two main Bangladesh Political parties, rising poverty, lack of employment facilities etc.
When we study the fall of Sheikh Hasina, we find repetition of almost the same failings that was in 1975 causing Mujibur’s fall. Over a period of time, her high-handed autocratic administration, corruption and side lining main opposition party BNP from participating in the latest election, deprived a large segment of Bangladeshi nationals from voting, who were BNP supporters, many of them were first timers, had a huge impact on the people of Bangladesh.
Her high headedness was first exposed when she accused the Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus of “sucking the blood from the poor” and making a long list of allegations against him, forcing him to flee his country.
Her problem was that she was of the opinion that she was worthy of the Nobel prize. Entire Bangladesh was upset about it. They came out in support of Muhammad Yunus. Same person today has been selected by every one in Bangladesh to lead the country’s interim government, which is a coveted position.
This interim government is to hold a free and fair election within three months. The students Federation, which is the prime mover of this movement, laid three conditions: it should not be based on the army, it should not have support of the army and the election shall be free and fair.
There is a feeling that Bangladesh is likely to come out of radicalism and see better days. Present class seems to be sensible. It is hoped that the incoming government realises the importance of India, her geopolitical status, connectivity and proximity with vast resources. As it is, Bangladesh is surrounded by India with a border of approximately 4206 km.
India, as the Ministry of External Affairs has said, needs to maintain a very balanced approach towards Bangladesh. Both are in need of each other. It must be subtle enough to handle this situation.
At this time, we need a friendly Bangladesh regime to keep a check on the growing influence of an aggressive Chinese government and the menace of terrorism in the North East. So, it is imperative that India reaches out to the interim government and the formal full-time government that will take charge of Bangladesh after the elections.
India has to accord the new government the same importance it had given to the previous regime. Any sign of hesitancy will surely allow China to completely control the eastern sector. With north-western and southern regions (Pakistan and Maldives) already under heavy influence of China, it can’t afford to lose its grip on the eastern front.
India has work cut out. It has to plan every move carefully and win the trust of the new Bangladeshi government and the people. The road ahead is bumpy. But it has to be travelled nonetheless.