The 2024 monsoon season in India has been unpredictable, with heavy rains, flooding, and landslides. Experts say this is a slow trend that's been developing over the last decade.
June 2024 was deficient in rainfall for much of India, with only Peninsular India receiving excess rain. July 2024 saw heavy monsoon rains in Uttarakhand, causing flash floods and landslides.
Global weather models have predicted that La Niña will emerge in late September or early October, which is a climate pattern that usually favours rainfall during India’s monsoon season.
The erratic rains and flooding have damaged crops, and farmers and policymakers are struggling to adapt.
There is a shifting pattern of extreme climate events across Indian districts according to a new report released on Friday. Some flood prone areas are now becoming susceptible to droughts and vice versa; often a combination of both hazards are being seen, the report added.
In the past two decades more than 80% districts in Gujarat have witnessed an increased frequency and intensity of extreme floods as per the analysis by IPE Global and Esri-India. This may explain the devastating floods in Saurashtra this year too.
The number of districts that have transitioned from experiencing floods to facing droughts (149) surpasses those that have shifted from droughts to floods (110).
In Southern India, states such as Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka, are witnessing a notable increase in drought conditions. as are parts of western and central India.
Drought events are becoming more severe across the Indian subcontinent which can also be linked to an increase in the number of heat wave days. Kharif crops, which rely on a well-timed retreat of the monsoon, are particularly vulnerable to this extended rainy season.
The Ministry of Agriculture recently reported that 408.72 lakh hectares of paddy were sown in 2024, up from 393.57 lakh hectares the previous year.
However, with excess rain-soaking fields meant for harvest, the bumper sowing might not translate into a good yield. The risk of crop losses is heightened by the fact that rain-fed crops like paddy and maize are highly sensitive to moisture levels during their critical harvest period.
This shifting monsoon pattern has become a growing concern for India’s farming community, especially in regions where rain-fed agriculture dominates.
The unpredictability of the rains and their increasing intensity have already had a significant impact on crop production. Between 2015-16 and 2021-22, hydro-meteorological calamities like floods and heavy rainfall damaged 33.9 million hectares of cropped area, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture.
The threat to food security in the country has got compounded further due to shrinking agriculture fields. Since 1995-96, the average size land holding has decreased from 1.41 hectares to 1.15 hectares which accounts for the decrease of 30,000 hectares of cultivable land each year.
Between now and 2050, 40 million more children will have stunted growth and 28 million more will suffer from wasting, the most extreme and irreversible forms of malnutrition, as a result of climate change, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation said in a report released recently.
The Foundation’s eighth annual report forecasts that climate change could lead to an additional 28 million children suffering from wasting by 2050, in addition to those already affected by stunting. However, immediate interventions could mitigate these effects, enhance global health, and stimulate economic growth.
In 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 148 million children experienced stunting and 45 million experienced wasting. Increased rainfall in western India could lead to more frequent and intense flooding. However, the existing water management infrastructure is insufficient to handle these surges, often resulting in pluvial floods during extreme rainfall. Sustainable approaches, like integrating surface and groundwater use, are necessary to mitigate these effects.
With extreme weather events like flooding becoming more common, experts emphasise the need for climate-resilient agricultural practices. Diversifying crops, improving drainage systems, and adopting drought- and flood-resistant varieties are just some of the strategies that could help mitigate the impact of erratic monsoons.
As India grapples with the shifting patterns of its lifeline, the monsoon, the road ahead will require an overhaul of agricultural planning to safeguard food security and farmer livelihoods. The government has to stop indulging in petty politics and come up with a comprehensive plan on how it plans to feed its burgeoning population.
India needs another ‘green revolution’ to deal with the threats posed by climate change. These include the increased investments into infrastructure for agriculture including better transportations and roads, cold storages, market chains and growing a variety of crops. The research systems and extension systems too require a revamp, making them in sync with the ground realities. While we already have the vast network of Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR) system, much more resources, better investments, and technical skills are required.
A lot of work has to be done and there is very little focus on this impending disaster. The establishment needs to wake up and smell the coffee, before it’s too late.