After EAM Jaishankar had delivered Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s letter to US President Donald Trump during the inaugural function, New Delhi, a strategic partner of the US in its bid to counter China, will be keen to arrange for a meeting between the two on an urgent basis.
Trump had visited India in February 2020 during his previous term in office where he promised India "an incredible trade deal".
And in this step, Jaishankar met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio for bilateral meeting on January 21.
This was the first official meeting between the Indian and US governments’ after Trump 2.0 took office. Both leaders agreed on a shared commitment to continuing to strengthen the partnership between the two countries.
According to a government statement, the dialogues covered regional issues and opportunities to further deepen the US-India ties especially on critical and emerging technologies, defence cooperation, energy, and on advancing a free and open Indo-Pacific region.
Meanwhile, even as Trump assumed office, his high pitch on tariffs has sent shock waves through global trade relations, particularly with the nations in the BRICS conglomerate and this includes India.
In fact, during the inaugural function, Trump had issued a warning to these countries, stating that they may face up to 100% import tariffs if they attempted to reduce the role of the dollar or tried to de-dollar in global trade. New Delhi has to take note of this announcement considering its dependence on trade matters with the US and incidentally, the US is New Delhi’s largest trading partner.
However, it may be noted here, rupee settlement in the BRICS trade is miniscule. Chinese currency accounts for 15 per cent of the global trade and China and Brazil are largely trading in the local currencies. So, the immediate pressure is on China and Brazil.
Currently, New Delhi has to adopt a wait-and-watch policy like other BRICS nations and decode Trump’s stance on the tariff policy.
In FY24, the US was India’s largest trading partner, with exports amounting to $77.5 billion, up 46% from $53.1 billion in FY20. A drastic move by the US could deal a severe blow to Indian export plans, especially in sectors like textiles, steel and agricultural products.
Meanwhile, despite the BRICS nations’ interest in exploring alternatives to the dollar, India has remained cautious.
It may be noted that as Jaishankar had pointed out during a recent discussion at the Doha Forum, “India has no interest in weakening the US dollar. We have always maintained that there is no proposal for a BRICS currency.”
ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT ISSUE
It may be noted that Trump also made a tough call on illegal immigration and announced the end of citizenship by birth for children of temporary visa holders, including H1-B and L1 visas as well as dependent visas (H4). However, on the next day, Trump stated that he supported H1-B visas for “competent” people not only in the tech industry but also for other jobs.
It may be recalled here that Indians account for nearly 75 per cent of the 386,000 H-1B visas issued in 2023.
From his bid to end birthright citizenship to mobilising troops along the US-Mexico border, Trump took a hardline approach on Day 1 itself.
Meanwhile, amid US’s sweeping immigration move, as per news reports, India is planning to take back all its nationals living illegally in the US. New Delhi has shown its eagerness to engage and comply with the US president to maintain an amicable environment.
Of illegal Indians
According to the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS), as many as 11 million (1.1 crore) illegal migrants were residing in America as of January 2022.
Some 220,000 “unauthorised” Indian immigrants lived in the US as of 2022, as per the DHS report released in 2024.
With 725,000, Indians stood at the third largest group of undocumented immigrants (in the US) after those from El Salvador and Mexico, according to the Pew Research Centre.
If Trump sticks to his plan to deport illegal immigrants, it could affect 20,407 “undocumented” Indians.
Of these, 17,940 “paperless” Indians are under “final removal orders”, while another 2,467 are in detention under the ICE’s Enforcement and Removal Operations.
By accepting its nationals, India is trying to keep the US in good humour and maintain a friendly term with the Trump administration and in return, New Delhi is hoping for concessions on student visas and the H-1B programme for skilled workers.
Dhruva Jaishankar, executive director of ORF America told in an interview to PTI, days ahead of the presidential inauguration, “I always say that India is, in relative terms, quite well placed under the Trump administration.”
“If you look at what Trump's demands are: he says American allies are free riders, that they should be doing more: Nato allies, Japan. He doesn't like foreign aid. So, on many issues, India is not really going to be directly affected because he doesn't see India as a problem,” said Jaishankar, whose latest book “Vishwa Shastra” recently hit the bookstores.
Also, India’s crucial role in the “China Plus One” strategy — a policy aimed at diversifying global supply chains away from China — may provide New Delhi with opportunities to expand its base especially in the manufacturing sector and increase exports to the US. If the US seeks to shift supply chains out of China in this term, New Delhi could expect to emerge as an alternative manufacturing hub.
However, India must take the initiative in this regard and hard sell the country’s case.
Moreover, the bond between Trump and Modi could allow for smoother negotiations and possibly a more flexible approach to several issues. Despite the tariff concerns, India’s strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific could provide a fillip to reduce trade ripples.
(Writer is Senior Journalist and Former Senior Associate Editor, O Heraldo, Goa)