In this Column of mine same day last year, I had picked at random the SIX BEST happenings that came to us that year (2023) and we looked at each of them with a lot of pride and euphoria tinged with measured caution. These Six were (just to remind), a) The Rise and Rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) also the growth of threat from Deepfake. b) The successful Chandrayan-3; c) A spectacular G20 summit during Indian Presidency; d) Replacement of the 160-year-old Indian Criminal Laws Codes, with the “Bhartiya Nyaya Sanhitas” e) The “Women’s’ Reservation Law” and f) The Sensex at 72,000, but the Rupee down to 83/-. I see it fair to take a re-look first, at where we are, a year gone now. After all, don’t we, at the civil society have a responsibility towards you readers?
My next Part, I thought will sum up SIX Biggest Items of 2024 and try and look at how far we go in those areas in 2025! Note: I skipped the attribute “BEST” this time..its going to be hazier than last year, I can warn!
My take:
A: The throw-back – The BEST-6 of last year!
a) AI: I’m sure a lot of work and innovation was done globally on Generative AI, a lot of that driven by none other than our Indian boys and girls near and far away. Results may be forthcoming tomorrow, but I was wondering about solutions that help the common man on our streets and in our fields in villages to improve their lives. I read a recent Nasscom AI Adoption Index 2.0 and it found 87% of our big Corporates together covering around 75% of our GDP, are at an average adoption index of just 2.47 (last year 2.22) of a total of 4.00. That too predominantly in Manufacturing. I think we need a lot more in Agri, Infra and Financial Sectors to really add values to our Economy!
As far as deep-fakes are concerned, a recent McAfee survey published, showed 75% of Indians surveyed have seen some form of deep-fake content over the last year, and around 38% of them have actually encountered a deep-fake scam during this time! Stupidity hit its peak when you saw educated people merrily “Forwarding” silly AI generated Deep-Fake on Social Media!
b) The Chandrayan-3, I’m not quite sure of its actuals vis-a-vis its deliverables. Sorry to say we haven’t heard much everafter.
c) The G20 Summit successes: The fate of the rail and shipping corridor linking India with the Middle East and Europe called the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor has neither been heard of since, nor much on the progress of the contributions from the African Union, also unheard thence, is the proposal for the “Energy Transition Fund” of $1.3bn, didn’t notice it in the Years’ budget
d) The Bhartiya Nyay Sanhitas: These have now had a 6 month-run and its too early to comment (given our disposal speed!) on their efficacy yet, heartening to see it deployed though.
e) The Womens’ Reservation Laws: Have to wait as I had said, till 2034 to see the delimitation and census, the CAA and the NRC….whilst the good thing is that the seats are physically available at the New Sansad Bhavan for future victors!
f) The Sensex: We’ll revisit in the next part.
B: 2024 remembered: and as I said, I’ll take a look at 2024 now and it’s SIX major take aways:
1. National Elections’ 2024: In about a 100 countries worldwide including, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and the US involving more than 4 billion voters (approximately half of the World Population) going to hustings in 2024. In most cases, the Right or the Centre-Right got their hold on the respective Governments in cases of Democracies.
2. Our Economy: Challenges in our foreign-trades with Right protective regimes in terms of Tariffs. As matters stand now, given the Geopolitical tensions in commodity-rich regions, our exports are down even on the face of a falling Rupee, Imports expensive and our Current Account Deficits widen to 1.2% of GDP.
Our Inflation is also a dismal 5.5% . The Sensex has lost over 9% last Quarter due to net-sale position from FPIs of over
Rs 4000 crores.
The Per-Capita consumption spend in the bottom 5% slab in Rural India is still just Rs1677/- a month, but the Rural-Urban Gap in Consumption is diminishing as in a recent NSO Study, and that’s good.
3. Non-Financial Performance Indices: We still need to do a lot better in 2025 in areas like, Intellectual Property Documentation, Human Development, Gender Inequality, Child Nutrition, Law and Order at the States and perceptible freedom of the Press measured by Reputed Global Indices 2024.
4. The One-Nation-One-Polls: Raised major storms in 2024, took sufficient Executive and Legislature time but the quality of conduct and manners in our legislature houses in full glare on evening television screens worldwide would definitely not add to glory in remembrance. On to 2025!
5. Neighbours: The Bangladesh uprising in August 2024 in our immediate neighborhood will cause concerns on unauthorized and even armed immigrants trickling in. A matter of concern also are the State and Private Indian Investments and aided projects there. The third concern is the Erstwhile Prime Ministser-in-refuge here in India, they want back. This will be tough diplomacy 2025
Next, there is the “World’s Largest” dam to be built 2025 by China across the Upper Brahmaputra (the Tsangpo) in a 120,000 MW Hydel Power-Plant, a cause for concern for water-flow in our North-East.
6. Back home in Goa: The First Curved Cable-Stayed Bridge at Mormugao was complete in 2024 so also the last stretch of the Margao Western Bypass. Long awaited projects, don’t remember exactly when they were started – but good that they’re complete now, ready to use!
And before I conclude: 2024 had been eventful leaving behind a mixed bag of memories I think! A Hearty Welcome to 2025 and a Very Happy New Year to you dear Reader!
(Binayak Datta is a
finance professional)