Will India go to war with Pakistan? The answer to that may be blowing in the wind, as of now, but the nation quickened the drumbeat a bit more on Monday, when the government instructed several states to conduct security mock drills on May 7. The aim of these drills, according to the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), is to enhance the preparedness of civilians in the event of a hostile attack, with an emphasis on air-raid sirens, blackout measures, camouflaging of vital installations, and evacuation plans. And with this, these drills, following the deadly Pahalgam terror attack on April 22, point to war clouds gathering and tension escalating between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
Once it became clear that terrorists fuelled and funded by Pakistan were behind the tragic events of Pahalgam, which left 26 civilians dead and heightened anxieties along the border, calls for retaliation have grown louder in India. The diplomatic response has been swift, with actions such as the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and a significant downgrading of Pakistan’s diplomatic presence in India. Yet, these mock drills – scheduled amidst rising tensions – signal a deeper, more concerning shift. They represent a stark reminder of the likelihood of conflict, marking a further downturn in the already strained ties between the two countries.
The government’s decision to revive a practice that was last observed in 1971, during the India-Pakistan war, is not without its implications. At a time when the world is already concerned about regional instability, India’s move to conduct such drills indicates that it is bracing for a potential escalation in the ongoing standoff with Pakistan. While mock drills are routinely conducted to prepare for natural disasters like earthquakes or building collapses, the inclusion of measures aimed at defending against “external threats” is telling. The drills aim to prepare civilians for a worst-case scenario. This is no longer about hypothetical threats; it’s a preparation for the very real possibility of war.
What is deeply concerning about these developments is that the Pahalgam attack has set off a chain reaction of events that could spiral out of control. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statements in the aftermath of the attack, including promises of severe retaliation, have only added to the rhetoric of vengeance. With the government of India vowing to punish those responsible for the attack and with public opinion strongly demanding action, the pressure on the government to respond militarily is intensifying. The mock drills, which involve a large-scale mobilisation of civil defence volunteers and the implementation of air-raid warning systems, could be a prelude to something more ominous.
This renewed focus on civil defence, combined with the military’s preparation for possible escalation, speaks volumes about the state of India-Pakistan relations. The last time such a level of preparedness was undertaken was in 1971, the year India and Pakistan fought a war. The war not only led to the creation of Bangladesh but also entrenched deep divisions and mistrust between the two nations. In many ways, the present situation is eerily reminiscent of that period, with both countries positioned on the brink of a conflict that could have catastrophic consequences.
The situation is further complicated by Pakistan’s own actions. The repeated violations of the 2003 Ceasefire Agreement, the constant military provocations, and the unyielding support for groups responsible for cross-border terrorism only add fuel to the fire. With both countries poised for military action, the international community must take heed of the situation. The possibility of war looms larger with every passing day, and the time for diplomacy and de-escalation is rapidly running out.
As India prepares for these mock drills, the larger question remains: What steps will both nations take to avoid an all-out conflict? While the mock drills may serve as a precautionary measure to protect civilians in the event of war, they also raise the spectre of war itself. In the face of this growing crisis, it is vital that both India and Pakistan take a step back. The rhetoric of retaliation and vengeance must give way to dialogue and diplomacy. Both countries must remember the lessons of history, where wars have led only to destruction and suffering. The mock drills may be necessary for preparedness, but they must also serve as a wake-up call for the need to work toward de-escalation and peace. Only then can we hope to avert the kind of tragedy that the world witnessed in 1971, and prevent history from repeating itself in the most tragic way possible.