Sheikh Hasina, who was the Prime Minister of Bangladesh till the August 5, has been staying in India for more than three weeks. The Indian government has ensured that Hasina and her younger sister Sheikh Rehana’s stay is under strict secrecy and tight security. But they have not yet formally announced what their final decision will be in this matter. Meanwhile, the Bangladesh government has revoked Sheikh Hasina’s diplomatic or official passport last week. This raises the question on what is the legal basis for her stay in India. In the current backdrop, senior government officials and analysts in Delhi have informed the BBC that three options or avenues are currently open to India on the issue of Sheikh Hasina. The first option is to arrange for their refuge in some third country, which should be a place that guarantees their safety. The second option is to grant political asylum to Sheikh Hasina and arrange for her temporary accommodation. The third option seems impossible at present, but a group of Indian officials and observers believe that if the situation improves in a few days, India may also try for Sheikh Hasina’s political return to Bangladesh. This is because the Awami League is not yet dead as a party or a political force and Hasina can take over the reins of the party after her return to the country.
There is no doubt in political circles and think-tank leaders that the first option is the best for India. This is because if Sheikh Hasina stays in India, it may adversely affect Delhi-Dhaka relations. Also, as per the Indo-Bangladesh extradition treaty, if any request for Sheikh Hasina’s extradition comes from Dhaka, India may reject it citing some or the other reason. Handing Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh to face the judicial process is not a practical option for India, say observers. In such a situation, India has the three options open on the issue of Sheikh Hasina, as mentioned above.
According to India’s last official statement, Sheikh Hasina’s visit to India was ‘timely’. Foreign Minister S Jayshankar during his speech in Parliament on August 6, while speaking on the situation in Bangladesh used the word ‘for the moment’ to refer to the issue. After that, no response has been given by the government in this matter. This is because efforts are still on to send Sheikh Hasina safely to a third country. But even if there is no immediate success, India will not hesitate to grant Hasina and her sister political asylum and keep them here for a longer period of time. However, there has been no success in this matter yet. It has been reported that India is also in talks with Qatar, another influential country in the Middle East, on the issue of providing asylum to Sheikh Hasina. It is also true that Sheikh Hasina herself has not yet applied for political asylum in writing to the US or any of these countries. The Government of India is doing all the negotiations on this matter on her behalf and on the basis of their verbal consent. If any country is willing to grant asylum to Sheikh Hasina, she can easily stay there with a visa of the country concerned on a travel document issued by the Government of India.
India had given political asylum to Dalai Lama, King Tribhuvan Bir Vikram Shah of Nepal and President Mohammad Najibullah of Afghanistan. Sheikh Hasina herself stayed in India with her family in 1975. However, if this option is chosen, Delhi will also have to remember the impact it will have on India-Bangladesh bilateral relations. Observers say that even after 65 years, the impact of the Dalai Lama’s stay in 1959 can be felt. No matter how much respect the Dalai Lama gets in India or the rest of the world, he has always been the bone between Delhi and Beijing’s bilateral relations. Many analysts in India also believe that if India grants political asylum to Sheikh Hasina, it could be a hindrance to cementing ties with the new government of Bangladesh.
Smriti Patnaik, senior fellow at IDSA in Delhi, says the agitation that ousted Sheikh Hasina’s government also had anti-India aspects. While that agitation was against Hasina, it was also against India. Now, in such a situation, if India grants political asylum to Sheikh Hasina, it will send a wrong message in Bangladesh and it will further inflame anti-Indian sentiments in that country. The Indian government is very well aware of it. However, if India is not successful in the first option, it will be forced to choose the second option. The reason for this is that under no circumstances can India leave their long-time friend Sheikh Hasina alone in the crisis. A powerful section of India’s top policymakers still believes that Sheikh Hasina’s relevance or role in Bangladesh politics is far from over and India would do well to help her political rehabilitation when the time is right.