In a major diplomatic move, India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, a crucial water-sharing agreement between India and Pakistan, following the deadly terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam that claimed 26 lives. The treaty, which has withstood three wars, allocated control of river systems between the two countries, with India controlling the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) and Pakistan governing the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab), despite their origins in Jammu and Kashmir.
The suspension of the treaty has significant implications for Pakistan, which heavily depends on the Indus River system. Here’s how the suspension will impact Pakistan:
No Meetings of Indus Waters Commissioners
The treaty mandates annual meetings between commissioners from both countries to discuss water-sharing issues. With India’s suspension of the pact, these meetings will no longer take place, hindering cooperation on water management.
No Data Sharing
Under the treaty, India has an obligation to provide Pakistan with vital hydrological data, including flood warnings and river discharge volumes. With the suspension, Pakistan risks facing natural disasters like floods or droughts without timely information about water levels on the Indus River and its tributaries.
No Advance Information on New Projects
By halting the agreement, India gains the freedom to accelerate its hydroelectric projects and construct dams on the western rivers, without consulting Pakistan. Previously, the treaty allowed Pakistan to review the designs of Indian hydroelectric projects.
No Field Visits by Pakistan’s Indus Waters Commissioner
The suspension also prevents Pakistan’s Indus Waters Commissioner from visiting Jammu and Kashmir to assess the status of the western rivers and ongoing Indian projects, limiting Pakistan's oversight.
No Annual Report Publication
The Indus Waters Treaty requires the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) to publish an annual report detailing the shared utilization of the rivers. With the treaty now suspended, this report will not be published, creating uncertainty about the state of the water systems and their management.
Far-reaching Consequences for Pakistan
The suspension of the treaty is expected to have profound consequences for Pakistan, which is already grappling with financial and political instability. The country depends heavily on the Indus River system for agriculture, with nearly 90% of its irrigation needs met by water from the Indus basin.
A disruption in water supply could severely affect agricultural production, leading to reduced crop yields and escalating water scarcity, particularly in the water-stressed provinces of Punjab and Sindh. This could also trigger social unrest.
Moreover, Pakistan’s already strained economy could face additional burdens. The country imports vast amounts of coal to compensate for the instability in hydroelectric power generation due to water scarcity. With the financial strain mounting, this disruption could further hinder Pakistan's economic recovery and contribute to an even larger trade deficit.
The suspension of the treaty comes at a crucial time for Pakistan, where water and energy resources are already under significant pressure. The move adds yet another layer of complexity to the ongoing geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan.
(This story is published from a syndicated feed)