SO, SEMI FINAL LOSS

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was least expecting the surprise that the results of the municipal elections threw. Even a day before the votes were counted it was claiming it would win at least 10 of the 11 councils. When the votes were counted, it had managed to wrest just six. After the grassroots Zilla Panchayat (ZP) polls of March this year, where the saffron party saw some of its bigwigs losing their grip in their constituencies, the municipal elections told the party that the urban population is also moving away from it, in certain significant pockets.

The BJP in 2012, led by Manohar Parrikar had created history, winning 21 of the 40 Assembly seats. Along with its alliance partners MGP and supporters like Goa Vikas Party (GVP) and independent MLAs, the party had nearly 30 seats in hand, with all credit going to their beloved ‘bhai’. And definitely, it was the Parrikar (bhai) factor that brought BJP to power in that election.

But over the last three-and-a-half years – including Parrikar’s one year tenure as Union Defence Minister – the Parrikar factor failed to impress voters in urban as well as rural areas. Despite campaigning for the ZP and Municipal elections in Goa, Parrikar failed to develop confidence amongst voters probably due to the government’s several U-turns on crucial issues like shifting the offshore casino vessels from the Mandovi, the delay in the Regional Plan 2021, the Medium of Instruction (MoI) imbroglio, pending Special Status, all issues on which the BJP rode to power

“Both ZP and Municipal elections have shown the people’s unhappiness with the BJP government. It gives a clear picture that the party has failed to impress voters at the grassroots and in urban areas. The wave has started moving against the BJP. They have failed in their semi-final,” State Congress president Luizinho Faleiro said. He added, “It’s time the saffron party assesses its performance as well as strength in the rural and urban areas.”

A detailed analysis of the ZP and Municipal elections shows that this was a result BJP least expected, and it’s now time the party leaders look back at the gaffes that cost the party dearly in these polls. With hardly 16 months for the 2017 Assembly elections – an election that BJP plans to go fight without any alliance after dumping its alliance partner MGP – it is time for the leadership to retrospect, set aside their arrogance, ego, differences and work either to retain power with a majority or at least win a considerable number of seats to stay in power. The party would definitely not like to reduce itself to single digits as did the Congress in 2012.

“The overall outcome is like a red card to most of the BJP ministers and MLAs, and the independents supporting the government. The anti-incumbency and self-centred behaviour of party leaders made them suffer,” Congress spokesperson Sunil Kawthankar said.

Going back to the ZP election held in March this year, the BJP won 12 seats in North Goa and 13 in South Goa, out of 25 in each district. That counts for just about 50% despite the use of State machinery. In political circles this was considered as a below par performance, considering that the party had managed to win both Lok Sabha seats less than a year earlier.

The coalition faced a major humiliation, when it faced defeat in Chief Minister Laxmikant Parsekar’s Morjim, then Speaker Rajendra Arlekar’s Dhargalim, Minister Ramesh Tawadkar’s Khola, Minister Alina Saldanha’s Cortalim, Minister Mahadev Naik’s Shiroda, MLA Mickky Pacheco’s Nuvem, MLA Dr Pramod Sawant’s Pali, MLA Vishnu Wagh’s St Andre, MLA Rajan Naik’s Guirdolim, MLA Caitu Silva’s Benaulim and MLA Benjamin Silva’s Velim constituencies.

It showed that the party didn’t have much support in rural Goa. The mining belt in South Goa too turned against the party because of false promises over resumption of iron ore extraction and related activities, though it managed to gain the confidence of mining dependents in the municipal polls. The Catholic dominated constituencies that had reposed their faith in the BJP during the assembly elections, have been slowly turning away from the BJP following U-turns on issues like MoI, Special Status and Mopa airport.

However, BJP downplays this criticism stating that in the ZP elections held in 2010, the party had managed to gain only four ZP seats. “This itself proves that people have faith in the party. Even for the municipal elections held in 2010, we had won only two councils and this time we have six councils with us. People are happy with our party and government and hence they have rewarded us with such a victory,” BJP president Vinay Tendulkar said.

In recent weeks, GVP MLAs Francisco (Mickky) Pacheco and Caetano (Caitu) Silva have expressed their resentment against the saffron party. While it’s early days yet, the BJP will find its ground slipping in Salcette if its independents turn against them.

At the municipal elections, though some of heavyweights like Parsekar, Arlekar managed to bounce back with clear majorities in councils in their constituencies, Minister Ramesh Tawadkar and MLA Rajan Naik again failed to prove themselves. While Tawadkar won three seats out of 10, Naik could manage only two of the 12 wards. In both this constituencies – Canacona and Cuncolim – old players Vijay Pai Khot and Joaquim Alemao made their comeback, sending clear signals that their bases are not completely eroded. It’s another mater that the BJP, in desperation may make use of them as rebels to cut congress votes in 2017.

While Quepem constituency again proved that BJP is not its cup-of-tea, BJP’s Damodar (Damu) Naik’s political future at Fatorda are at stake after his arch rival Vijai Sardesai made a clean sweep in the municipal election wining all 11 wards in the constituency.

At the same time, the result indicated that former Chief Minister and MLA Digambar Kamat is losing his hold over Margao, an indicator of the shifting political sands in the State’s commercial capital.

Political analysts claim that people are again looking for change across all 40 constituencies, including those dominated by some of top leaders for decades.

“Compared to the ZP polls, we have done comparatively well in the municipal polls. Most of our sitting MLAs gained victories with a majority. BJP has always said that it is a party of the people, and every effort is being made to reach out to each section of society. Constant efforts are on to strengthen our base in villages and urban areas,” Tendulkar said.

Somehow, these words ring very hollow when you actually go to the ground and speak to people.

Overall, these two crucial elections have taught lessons to all the parties, although the lessons to the ruling dispensation are more telling.These election results have given Congress space to have a discussion, though the success of its MLA’s in Valpoi and Quepem have nothing to do with the party (see stories below). Analysts say that Congress did manage to make its presence felt and recover lost ground to some extent. It didn’t appear strong though, in the game of political machination.

So, the semi finals are over. It was the Chief Minister who said these civic elections to 11 municipal councils were the ‘semi finals’, assuming that the 2017 assembly elections are the finals. Barely managing 6 out of 11, again just about crossing the 50% mark, Mr Laxmikant Parsekar has not once said that he has won the semi-finals. As a seasoned politician, he perhaps knows the ground realities.