As a token of remembrance, yesterday, the BJP observed black day over Indira Gandhi’s 1975 emergency. That emergency also provided a narrative for parties opposed to emergency to amalgamate into a single party. Though the Janata party was technically a party it was essentially a coalition of parties otherwise opposed to each other.`
The four years of the present government has almost fired parties otherwise opposed to each other to exploit the ebbing of the Modi wave and present themselves as an alternative. Even before the Karnataka election results were out, the BJP president presented his rivals as “cats, dogs, snakes and rats”. Parliamentary democracy essentially works on the majority formula but whether Modi’s chemistry will permit the opposition arithmetic to prevail is what we are looking after four years.
Coalition politics is not new for us. From 1989 onwards we have coalition governments and even the present government is essentially a coalition, though for the first time since 1989, BJP has a majority on its own. It could be said that the best coalition governments were provided by AB Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh in his first stint (2004-2009). The first NDA government was presented as ‘India shining’ period. Manmohan Singh managed a growth rate despite an economic meltdown at the world level.
In the 60’s of the last century in their previous avatar as Jana Sangh, they collaborated with the socialists led by RM Lohia. Jana Sangh, Socialist party and Swatantra party came together, though they had precious little in common. They went ahead and even formed governments with the communists called the SVD governments. Those were the days of anti-Congressism, and Lohia had brought in the concept of Mahaghatbandhan to dismantle the Congress hegemony.
Times are different, the hegemony of the BJP is being opposed with the same tool. The anti Modi sentiment is quite high among the regional satraps. The alignment of Mayawati and Akilesh, and the rallying around of the regional satraps with the Congress seem a possible blueprint against a sort of presidential campaign for a parliamentary poll.
The country would again be presented with a story of ‘cats, dogs, snakes and rats’ as an element of opportunistic power politics. The nation would be reminded of Deve Gowda and IK Gujral times of political instability and finally these ‘animals’ would never get somebody to lead them.
The more serious question would be whether the last four years of Narendra Modi with BJP majority has delivered better than AB Vajpayee or Manmohan Singh. Whether in terms of legislations, policies or economic growth, some of the best laws like the right to information, employment guarantee and right to education came during the first UPA regime due to a strong pressure by the Left who were not even part of the government and their economic growth rate was something that could be showcased
World over coalition governments have impressive track records and coalitions have become integral part of parliamentary systems. Germany, Holland, Belgium and many Scandinavian countries have successfully shown coalition political regimes. Of course the most shining example is Italy where economic growth showed reasonable success. Our country with so much of religious, regional, linguistic and socio-cultural differences, a coalition government could provide a solution to centrifugal tendencies of such forces.
The recent move of BJP in J & K shows the majoritarian narrative being built for the 2019 polls. The other side should not fall to these moves on the political chess board. The traditional secularism versus communalism will only strengthen the ‘we’ versus ‘them’ narrative. The Hindu-minorities polarisation trap must be avoided at all costs. The opposition has to build their narrative on the anger of Dalits, Muslims and the farmers. The combined anger was seen in the Phulpur, Gorakhpur and Kairana and the impact of disunity was evident at Palghar in Maharashtra. All regional parties, caste grouping must get amalgamated into a wide coalition built around winnability in an atmosphere where wining elections is the only thing over administration and constitutional values. Arithmetic appears the only option, however cynical it may appear.
The charisma of Modi is still high. His thirst to campaign is second to none and the RSS machinery provides the necessary wherewithal. There is no consensus on the leadership of coalition which certainly affects the public perception. But what is the use of having a stable one party government with a strong leader, if the biggest casualty is the country’s economy? In any case we do not have a presidential system.
The Congress may have got re-energised with the results of Gujarat and Karnataka where the wave is seen to be ebbing. The next round of polls are in Rajasthan, MP and Chattisgarh. Here it is expected that the Congress plays the right strategy of accommodation, though the rise of regional forces and local groups will hurt them the most. Rajasthan and MP shall decide whether Congress can pioneer the coalition or play a supportive role in the broader interest of keeping at bay the one who attempted to dismantle the institutions that built the nation and brought us this far. The pivot around which the new coalition could work is an attack on the BJP hegemony which only attempts to destroy the diversity of our country- the idea of India.
It was said that in 2014 ‘chemistry’ prevailed over ‘arithmetic’ The fact of the matter is that the fragmentation of the anti-BJP votes created the so called wave in the first phase past the post system. The power of arithmetic was at full display in Bihar in 2015 and at the recently held by-polls. If the mood of the recent by-polls continue, that Chemistry of 2019 shall give way.
(The writer is practising advocate, senior faculty in law and political analyst)
