PANJIM: Nearly four days in advance of its normal date on June 1 Goa too might witness early seasonal showers, as the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala is expected on May 27.
However, strength of monsoon currents, localised weather features, etc plays crucial role in the progression of the monsoon.
In its bulletin on the monsoon onset released on Friday, the IMD said, “This year, the onset of the southwest monsoon is likely to be earlier than the normal date of onset. The monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on May 27 with a model error of four days on either side.”
The normal onset date of monsoon over Goa is June 5. Since the monsoon onset is likely over Kerala 4-5 days ahead of its normal date, there is possibility that monsoon may advance to the latitudes of Goa also, before its normal date.
When contacted, IMD Goa in-charge Rahul said that IMD does not forecast the dates for progression of monsoon further northwards as it dependents on a lot of factors such as strength of monsoon currents, localized weather features, etc.
IN 2021, four-month long Southwest monsoon had arrived over Goa on June 5, almost 48 hours after it reached Kerala.
Rahul explained that the date of last ten to eleven years data on monsoon arrival over Goa and compare it with the onset date over Kerala, we can see that there is no direct correlation between both. “There have been years like 2017 and 2018, when monsoon onset was before normal date over Kerala but arrived over Goa after normal date,” he explained.