So it’s down to a week now. At this stage in 2012, it was so clear who is winning that Manohar Parrikar and his team had begun discussions on the cabinet and the venue of swearing in ceremony, yes even before a single vote was cast. In 2017, the ruling party which hopes to beat anti- incumbency, is tying up loose ends.
Some of their heavyweights who are on shaky grounds are being asked if they need help. While the BJP negates any whisper of the word ‘anti- incumbency, from Pernem to Mandrem to Mandrem and Sankhalim in the north and Savroidem in the south, BJP bastions need protection, some serious and others just a hand.
In 2012, Manohar Parrikar was the lead singer in the BJP’s band. In 2017, he is the behind the scenes conductor of the opera, not on stage but in total control. The number of Last minute candidates in many constituencies, the unusually high number of independents, especially in Salcette, seems straight from the art of winning elections, manual, if there ever was an ideal manual.
Most of those who have closely followed elections in Goa, will agree that this election has been an exercise of unmatched and hitherto not conceived “political engineering”
The laundry list of those who have left the Congress got longer with each passing lady- First it was Mauvin Godinho followed by Pandurang Madkaikar and then Pravin Zyantye. While the congress considers them dead wood, the BJP will work overtime to set them in their own mould.
The BJP’s biggest challenge, as it claims an absolute majority, is to negate the influence of the MGP and the GSM. They cannot be wished away as major irritants even at this stage. In Sankhalim, old warhorse Dr Suresh Amonkar is back on a GSM ticket and is meeting all his patients who may became his voters. In Bicholim, Naresh Sawal on an MGP ticket is the official heavyweight with the BJP playing hard to catch up. In Mayem, BJP’s new entrant from Congress Pravin Zyantye, needs to watch his former party’s candidate Santosh Sawant very carefully. In Curchorem, MGP’s Shyam Satardekar is hot on the heels of Nilesh Cabral while in Sanguem, it is not as much as Savitri Kavlekar of the Congress, as an Independent Prasad Gaonkar, who will give BJP’s Subhash Phaldesai sleepless nights.
The road to absolute majority are riddled with these roadblocks. However, BJP best hope is fragmenting the anti- BJP votes in each constituency If they do that they are through. But their nightmare is the anti BJP vote consolidates behind the strongest anti BJP candidate in that constituency.
With a week to go, the BJP will find solace in the fact that big ticket issues haven’t come and blown away their campaign. But the sense that one gets on the ground is that neither the concerns of non-delivery of promises in key areas nor the big ticket projects will make too much of a difference. Little things that are dear to local constituents- water, roads, power and above all- and this is very critical- employment that may move the silent vote.
The BJP needs to watch this silent space very carefully.
