The Goa State budget figures for 2019-20 expects the State’s economy to grow at an amazing rate of 10 per cent compared to the last year. But the figures defy logic. Revenue receipts are expected to be Rs 1219378.79 lakh compared to figures budgeted last year at Rs.1053069.37 lakh. It is just not understood as to how all the figures (revenue as well as the expenditure) of the budget estimates for the year 2018-19 match exactly with the revised estimates for 2018-19?
Going by the above logic, the government claims to be cent per cent confident to earn the exact revenue and spend exact money closest to the decimals of the exact paisa, as per the revised estimates for 2018-19 and those figures budgeted last year for 2018-19.
Govt expects a 10% increase in the GDP for the upcoming fiscal year 2019-20 by expecting 7% less borrowings and 4% less share of its own taxes in its pie of total revenue offsetting by the increase of state’s share in central taxes by 10%. In terms of expenditure the government expects 4% increase in the salary and wage bill for the upcoming year in its total pie of rupee outgo.
It is heartening to know from the updated figures in the budget 2019-20 that the government has surpassed its expected revenue surplus in the year 2017-18. The government had expected a surplus of Rs 30,905 lakh as per RE for 2017-18 which actually turned out to be Rs 51,062 lakh for the same year.
For the fiscal year 2018-19 the government expects a revenue surplus of Rs. 14,464 lakh only as per the revised estimates, as against the actual surplus of Rs 51,062 lakh in 2017-18 stated above. This amounts to 3.5 times lower than the previous year due to an expectation of an unprecedented increase in revenue expenditure in 2018-19. These figures are understandable. However, what is surprising is that for the upcoming year 2019-20, the government expects a whooping surplus of Rs 45,510 lakh (almost 3 times more) despite falling short of the same target by 32% in 2018-19 compared to the past in 2017-18. Thus the expected increase is 211% despite 32% shortfall in revenue surplus in as budgeted in 2018-19 compared to actual figures in 2017-18. This means the government expects the surplus in 2019-20 to increase unprecedentedly compared to what it expected in 2018-19 owing to expectation of increase in the revenue receipts in the upcoming year. The logic fails here!
Similarly the government expects 45% increase in capital receipts (Rs. 245741 lakh) in 2019-20 compared to the RE of last year 2018-19 (Rs. 170036 lakh) despite of 32% shortfall in capital receipts as per the budgeted estimate in 2018-19 compared to actual figures in 2017-18.
The fiscal deficit for the year 2019-20 is expected to be Rs. 141865 lakh as per the new budget. Given that for the passing year the figure is expected to be Rs. 76367 lakh only, means the fiscal deficit for the current year is expected to rise by 85% (or 1.85 times) compared to the last year 2018-19.
