The 2022 Goa State Elections have thrown a surprising result. The Pramod Sawant led-BJP registered its third consecutive victory in Goa after winning 20 seats, falling just short of the majority mark. Meanwhile, the project of the opposition Congress to present itself as the only viable alternative failed to capture the imagination of the Goan electorate, despite a fervent campaign.
What are the big takeaways from the verdict?
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One, the ruling BJP managed to retain its vote share of 33 per cent. With a coherent strategy and plan, the party micro-managed every seat in the State. The BJP’s superior organisational strength, coupled with the abundance of resources, has delivered in its favour. The party also benefited from defectors joining the party and bringing their committed votes to the table. While the BJP faced intense criticism for giving tickets to two couples, the party’s emphasis on the winnability of candidates seems to have finally worked.
The results mean that the BJP’s intrinsic vote share remains intact in the State.
Two, the results reveal a deep frustration against non-performers. Twenty sitting legislators have been discarded by the people. This scenario is not very different from the 2017 State election, when even the then sitting Chief Minister Laxmikant Parsekar lost, and shows that people are watching the performance of their representatives very closely in the coastal State. In one of the most telling aspects of this election, the electorate has voted with a vengeance and defeated 9 of 13 legislators who defected to the ruling BJP from the Congress and the MGP in the last term. One of the prominent examples is that of Chandrakant Kavlekar, the sitting Dy CM who lost from Quepem.
Three, a divided opposition working at cross-purposes only helped the saffron party reap dividends. And this was reflected in the overall results. Despite massive anti-incumbency sentiment against the ruling BJP, Congress could not effectively capitalise on voter sentiment, due to a huge division of votes in many seats, especially in the Salcete region. Like in other States across the country, Congress has lost its political heft in Goa, too. The opposition votes were split among the Aam Aadmi Party, Trinamool Congress, Revolutionary Goans, and Independents. The Congress failed to reach out to MGP while ignoring the TMC’s overtures for an alliance. Goans rejected the Trinamool Congress, which had arrived four months before the election. The Opposition space was taken up by an array of political parties that were not able to build a successful narrative to convince people.
Four, the Congress has a long way to go, if it has to be a serious contender for power in the 2024 General Elections. With its loss of many prominent leaders thanks to the BJP working overtime to play up on dissidence and lure over the ambitious leaders the Congress was forced to bring in many new faces.
Five, the debut of Revolutionary Goans Party is another major highlight of the results. In every democratic setup, established political parties are challenged by other parties. In Goa, the situation was no different this time. The party led by Manoj Parab found traction among the Goan electorate. Viresh Borkar, its sole winner bagged the St Andre assembly seat. The party managed to gain a toe-hold in Salcete. To a certain extent, the RGP’s stellar performance in its poll debut may have helped the BJP retain power in Goa. The performance of Revolutionary Goans will worry the established parties of the State.
Finally, the other major takeaway is that of the rise of the Aam Aadmi Party. After a dismal performance in the 2017 Elections in which it lost its deposit in 39 seats, the AAP made an entry into the Assembly winning two seats this time. Its candidates Captain Venzy Viegas and Cruz Silva won from Benaulim and Velim, respectively. The AAP’s other prominent candidates, including Rahul Mhambre who contested from Mapusa, its chief ministerial candidate Amit Palekar, who contested from St Cruz, and lawyer Pratima Coutinho, however, lost. In 2017, the AAP had a vote share of 6.3%, which increased to 6.8% this time.
Can the BJP satisfy the aspirations of the average Goan? The results carry the potential challenges that the BJP will have to contend with sooner or later. Economic concerns, unemployment, and inflation are the real issues that will confront the incoming government. One of the biggest election promises made by the BJP was the resumption of mining, which was once the mainstay of the State economy. Will this issue be resolved? The coming weeks and months will determine the answer to this crucial question.
(Anish Esteves is a student of Mass Media and Journalism based in Mumbai, India)
