Team Herald

CANDOLIM/PONDA: Goa’s eight-month-long political limbo might just be nearing its end as senior BJP observers land in Goa on Monday to take stock and execute and seamless transfer of power from ailing Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar to the second highest ranking minister Ramkrishna (Sudin) Dhavalikar of the MGP. 

Dhavalikar is in line to be anointed as the next Chief Minister of the NDA government of Goa. This will bring to an end almost a year-long confusion on who will lead Goa in case Parrikar remains ill and absent from work for a long time. The entire exercise will be completed before September 22, before the Hindu mourning period that begins on September 25.

Talking exclusively to Herald, Dhavalikar admitted being contacted by senior leaders of the BJP but clarified, “I have not been told anything formally in this regard. So would not like to comment.” However, BJP insiders confirmed that Dhavalikar would be a better bet considering his proximity with senior party leaders such as Nitin Gadkari, the fact that MGP has complemented BJP and the later had even helped the former from losing its regional party status but most importantly, his political wizardry of holding even the opposition Congress in check. 

Dhavalikar also finds favour across most of the members of BJP’s core committee that includes besides Parrikar, Sripad Naik, Vinay Tendulkar, Narendra Sawaikar, Laxmikant Parsekar, Datta Kholkar, Sanjiv Dessai and Sadanand Shet Tanavade. BJP insiders also confirm that the usual suspects from Congress, numbering more than four MLAs, would be willing to jump ship if a floor test is required.

BJP has also taken an in-principle decision to replace the two ailing MLAs – Urban Development Minister Francis D’Souza and Power Minister Pandurang Madkaikar – with Sanquelim MLA Pramod Sawant and Curchorem MLA Nilesh Cabral. Bicholim MLA Rajesh Patnekar is likely to be the next Speaker of the Legislative Assembly. Parrikar’s berth would be kept either in abeyance for Parrikar’s return or for future Cabinet expansion.

Both BJP and MGP have dismissed the possibility of an immediate dissolution of the Assembly but for different reasons. While BJP claims that the coalition is stable and shall complete its terms despite Parrikar’s absence, MGP is smug about it. And, rightly so. Past trends have shown that all anti-BJP votes get converted into pro-MGP votes and in the eventuality of an election, MGP may increase its seat strength at the cost of anti-incumbency against BJP. The other coalition partner Goa Forward Party too is silent on elections because the current state of governance has shaken up the electorate across the State and no ruling party constituent would like to rock the boat.

Dhavalikar’s choice also has to do with an eye on Parliamentary polls where BJP is facing a stiff anti-incumbency wave across both North and South Goa parliamentary constituencies. With a large chunk of Hindu voters, both in North and South, looking away from BJP, the party would be looking at MGP’s support to wean those voters back to BJP’s fold.

However, one of the biggest predictable casualties has been the non-consideration of Sripad Naik as an alternative to Parrikar. The Union AYUSH Minister, who has an untainted image and hails from the majority Bhandari Samaj, was seen by many within BJP ranks and the grassroots as the best bet in an election year. The choice of Dhavalikar over Naik signals a clear preference of political jugglery over party loyalty within the BJP ranks and hierarchy. Refusing to react Naik said, “The party core committee in the State is yet to meet over this.”

BJP’s leadership may pat itself on the back for pulling yet another coup in the State but has in its wake left a deep schism. “Caste does matter in Goa and this kind of preference for higher caste leadership is very difficult to explain down the line even to the cadres,” admitted a senior BJP leader. With decks being cleared for Dhavalikar’s succession, BJP may lose more than just the CM’s chair.

Interestingly, Dhavalikar has also been wooed by Congress with the option of leading a coalition as well as supporting its CM candidate. He has neither confirmed nor rejected the first offer and has not shied away from MGP supporting the second offer too. For the moment, while it is a photo-finish for BJP to give the State a new leader, Dhavalikar definitely is the toast of the season.