With 18 to 20 months to go before the nation votes for a new Lok Sabha in 2019, Sunday’s induction of new ministers to the Union ministry and the reshuffle of portfolios is possibly the last major changes of the Union ministry before the polls. The reshuffle was necessary, as there were some senior vacancies created by the resignations of Manohar Parikar as Defence Minister to return to Goa as CM, and that of Venkaiah Naidu who held the portfolio of Information and Broadcasting and was elected as Vice President of India, and the death of Anil Dave who held the Environment Ministry.
Besides the vacancies that had to be filled, as Arun Jaitley, who already has his hands full with the ministries of Finance and also Corporate Affairs, has been handling the Defence ministry also, the reshuffle also assumes importance, not just because of the upcoming parliamentary polls, but also the other elections to the State assemblies that are due before 2019, especially in Gujarat in a couple of months, and in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh next year. So while bringing in more talent in the ministry, the reshuffle was also expected to bring representatives of the new allies into the cabinet, but this did not happen.
For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, this reshuffle has been an attempt at a fine balancing act in trying to get the equation right between politics and performance. With resignations of junior ministers, who will in the course of time be drafted into working for the party and given important tasks and targets for 2019, Modi was able to make way in the ministry for others who could help project a pan-India image of the government, rather than being restricted to the Hindi heartland. Fears that the party may lose a few seats in this vast area of central India, has led to the BJP looking at other States especially those in the South and West Bengal. The election of Venkaiah Naidu as Vice President is likely to help the party prospects in the South, and with R N Kovind as President the backward classes too could rally round BJP.
The Prime Minister also sent a subtle message out to the ministers that he stands by performance, when he inducted a number of former bureaucrats into the ministry, one of who is not even a Member of Parliament. At the same time this move underlined Modi’s dependence on bureaucrats and proved the Congress allegations that there is no talent in the BJP pool. So with former bureaucrats on his team, does Modi hope to deliver in the next 18 months and turn the tide in favour of the BJP? The Union government has just that much time before the Election Commission of India announces the dates for the polls.
The cabinet re-jig is the first of the party’s visible preparations for the 2019 polls. Internally, the moves have already begun and the target, according to news reports, is 350 seats for the BJP. Reports already state that serving ministers have been assigned certain Lok Sabha seats to nurture and deliver to the party kitty in 2019, and senior ministers have even been tasked with entire States. Jaitley, for instance, has been put in charge of the Gujarat elections.
The new ministers and those who will get new portfolios will have little time to prove themselves, as the country rushes towards another general election. This is almost the last leg of the term of the current Lok Sabha and the paucity of time will make it that little bit more difficult for the government to prove itself and go to the people in 2019.
