Watch out when the common man is silent
Even in the age of the impossible, politics follows a pattern which , inspite of its myriad twists and turns, makes some sense to some people. But even here certain landmark moments in politics defies the most complex of patterns, for those who shy away from the simplest of truths.
As the dust and the dusk settled on April 12, when close to 80 % of Goans voted, each of the main parties felt it convenient, to see this as an affirmation of a changing tide in some way or the other. The Congress felt finally there was a clearing in their jungle of doom, with the Church propagating secular voting, which the Congress assuming that mantle. The BJP, especially in Salcete, saw this as a decisive reiteration of the assumed support of the Catholics, while last minute opportunists saw this as a hope that a high turnout meant that their assumed vote base has come out to vote. Each of these parties, were the proverbial blind men caressing the trunk, torso and behind of the elephant, to determine what it was.
But the truth does come home, more often than the cows do. And on the evening of April 12, certain conversations came home that made complex patterns around Goas elections, seemed so simple that no one noticed. Three women in their seventies to mid eighties, all Church going, all devout and all who had wanted to teach Congress a lesson in 2012 and the BJP a lesson now were chatting at a party. From time to time, they struggled with one name. It sounded like Kejriwal, which with due respect and empathy to the good ladies from Raia and Maina, a tad difficult to pronounce. But they did get “AAP” right. And their logic was as sharp as an arrow. If the BJP has not delivered, the Congress has no reason to get back their trust. Here was a man who was getting slapped and punched but speaking their language, so it was better to press for the broom than “None of the Above”, and they did.
Now this little, very true story may not turn the Goa elections on its head and deliver AAP two seats. But this conversations is one of many touch points which has made ordinary Goans, go the AAP way. What does this indicate? Simply that this voter is telling the BJP that we are not rejecting you outright but pulling out for the moment as a warning that this could indeed happen during the assembly elections three years later. This voter is also telling the Congress, that you may be hungry and waiting but you haven’t done anything to deserve votes since 2011.
Now if this trend is a pattern in North Goa as well as in the South, then the combination of other factors coupled with these, will damage the BJP more than the Congress and here’s why. The core Congress vote had moved away from it and gone to the BJP and independents. Most of the AAP votes, may be of the old time congressman who is- and this is critical- now the new time BJP voter ( or someone who voted for a BJP backed independent). So this voter had in any case voted against the Congress in 2012, so on 2014, this won’t be a fresh vote against it.
More importantly, if any one has cared to notice, the core of AAPs members and senior functionaries are from BJP or other branches of the parivar who have opted out. And the rebel is always the most dangerous enemy for he can fight without baggage. The pragmatic realise this, the foolhardy don’t.
There is indeed a silent vote but many including journalists are perhaps off the mark when they think this vote is going to the BJP. The ruling party gets votes with a lot of noise, not silence. It’s the underdog who silently moves in. AAP did just that in Delhi. It may still not send its first MP to the Lok Sabha from Goa, but it could well spoil Manohar Parrikars promise of two seats to Narendra Modi.
