As our State goes to polls today, there is palpable anger against the ruling party. Possibly no other State has faced so much of ire from the administration ombudsman Lokayukta. The industry associations like CREDAI and GSIA which are normally tight lipped have openly accused the government of being corrupt. The tourism body TTAG made it loud and clear that its mission is – 30% commission in the tourism sector. The unemployment is at an all-time high and jobs get sold on the eve of elections. That accusation came from a ruling party MLA. The Covid mismanagement over supply of oxygen leading to death of fellow Goans is unpardonable. Goa’s land is being sold after conversion to non-agricultural use. The civil society is up in arms against the regime which is out to finish what little is left of Goa. The ruling party has the gumption to come with a manifesto with almost nothing to save the State and its environment.
The anti-establishment sentiment is very high. A clear wave is seen developing, but it is said that the opposition lacks wining potential as the division in their ranks will not help them harvest the wave. The assembly constituencies in this State have around 25 to 30 thousand voters and four cornered contests make the winning margins very small. In 2017 BJP which secured 13 seats & cornered 32.4% of the popular vote while Congress with 28% popular vote got 17 seats. The new entrant AAP with 6.27 vote share and no seats distorted the 2017 mandate. AAP collected about 2000 votes in 10 seats and above 1000 in about 11 constituencies. Without their presence, the results of Mormugao, Cortalim and Panjim could have been different and Goa may have travelled in a different direction. MGP the oldest regional party collected 11% vote share. This time MGP may increase their vote-share. AAP has certainly increased its traction by a sustained campaign and may even register its presence in the House. Even if the new entrant TMC registers 4-5% vote share, it is possible that the developing wave built around the anger of the people fizzles out giving an advantage to the incumbent. The overcrowded opposition space certainly works to the advantage of the ruling BJP.
All political parties including independents certainly have a constitutional right to contest elections but in a first past the post system wherever there are close contests even candidates with minimal support can be a spoiler. Vote splitting is certainly election science where distribution of votes among multiple candidates with the same ideology, aims and objectives reduce the chance of winning of any of the candidates with same principles and increase the chance of the winner from the other side. In election parlance a ‘spoiler’ is neither the winner nor a runner up but distant ‘also-ran’ whose presence in the race vitiates the electoral battle. We call it nuisance value.
Multiple parties in electoral race get together to defeat the incumbent as part of election strategy. It is not mathematics that propels an alliance to power. Unless the chemistry of the parties works out, there is no advantage of alliances. The mahagatbandhan of RJD & JDU worked very well in 2015 but the SP-BSP alliance did not work in 2019 general elections. In fact in the 2021 Bihar elections the RJD Congress alliance dragged the RJD down.
In Goa despite a very high anti-incumbency against the government and all players wanting to oust the incumbent there has been no major move for alignment of forces against the incumbent. After the Delhi victory by AAP in 2020 and the TMC decimating the BJP in west Bengal in 2021, a view is developing that there is enough space for a third alternative in India. If Deve Gowda with few MPs could be a prime minister why should Mamata Banerjee or Arvind Kejriwal not take a shot at it? It worked out for Deve Gowda with post poll coalition but currently the situation warrants attraction of building a pre poll narrative as a first step Narendra Modi did. An aspiration to go beyond Delhi and West Bengal had found Goa in the cross fire of ambition and garnering of national space. Goa has become a testing laboratory for their national ambitions. As Congress got weak nationally, they believe there is a vacuum. The fight is for the second place has become fierce. The sharp attack of both the AAP and the TMC against the Congress and portraying the Congress leadership in poor light is clearly in the direction of building a national momentum. They are all competing for second place in national politics. It is Goa’s tragedy that we have an election in 2022 while some players are playing for 2024.
The high profile West Bengal assembly elections showed that the entry of ISF into the Congress – left third party alliance not to dent even a bit though in about 100 seats it was expected to eat into the TMC support ways and make it a triangular contest. That’s because the people decided to keep the BJP at bay. The West Bengal electorate pushing out the second runner-up candidates made the TMC victory decisive.
The people in Bengal showed the way. They showed that there is no third place in electoral race. They pushed the third force out of contest. The type strategic voting in West Bengal is an answer to the overcrowded opposition space. The people must be decisive in their choices. In case the spoilers are shown the door the mandate shall be decisive and clear. If there is no division the developing wave may be a tsunami.
(The writer is a practising advocate, senior faculty in law and political analyst)
