ROBIN ROY
War for earth or rather land has passed. Modern day warfare is going to be all about rare earths. Some 17 REEs—with like neo dymium, dysprosium, sa marium and terbium—will be responsible for driving the new world in the days to come. RREs are found in the motor of the electric vehi cle, the guidance systems of an F-35 fighter jet, the lens es of one’s iPhone! Even as the demand has broken all new records, sup ply is concentrated only in a few countries. China cur rently controls more than 70 per cent of global mining of these elements, and over 90 per cent of their process ing. After China launched a major export controls on key rare earths and pro cessing technologies late in 2025, ahead of President Xi Jinping’s summit with US President Donald Trump, which the latter cancelled in anger, President Trump had threatened to slap 100 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods and had termed the export bans as a national se curity threat to the country. These curbs could tanta mount to an economic war fare. Decades of ignoring in vestment in rare earths have left the Western na tions, including the US heav ily dependent on China and like oil in the past, RREs will turn into the most crucial items soon. Trump’s “plan to enter” Afghanistan is being closely watched by many as a means of keeping tabs of the vast untapped reserves that include rare earths, lithium, and copper and the estimated value of these are pegged around up to $3 trillion. By invading Ukraine, Rus sia “is in” control of rough ly half of its rich rare earth hubs. Whether in Ukraine or the mountains of Afghanistan and even the jungles of the DRC or Gobi Desert, the next conflict may be decided by who owns the minerals un der our feet. Goldman Sachs had warned that a 10% disrup tion in REEs supply could wipe out $150 billion in global output. In November 2025, Pres ident Trump and Australian Prime Minister inked the US-Australia Critical Miner als Framework Agreement, pledging at least $1 billion in near-term financing to build processing capacity and reduce dependence on Chinese supply. Even as China and the US are already in the race to amass the hub of rare earth items, Africa, is silently set to become the next hub despite multiple conflicts. Burundi, Tanzania, and the DRC hold enormous reserves of ne odymium, cobalt, and dys prosium, but have already been ravaged by decades of vicious wars. However, hav ing said this, it must be men tioned that China has man aged to dominate mining operations in the (African) continent for years. It is believed that in retali ation to Japan PM’s remarks late last year which said that Japan could intervene militarily if China invades Taiwan, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that it would strengthen controls on the export of dual-use items. To elaborate on the same, China Daily had re ported that the country was also considering tighten ing export licenses for rare earths being sent to Japan — which, like many coun tries, depends on those ma terials. China also clamped wide-ranging restrictions on critical exports to Japan building a standoff between the two countries. A year of Chinese restric tions on rare earths exports could cost Japan’s indus tries around $16.5 billion and have a huge impact on its GDP too! Australia, Canada and the European Union have recog nised the need for remain ing together in this regard and build alternative supply chains. China’s move to forbid (rare earth) exports will probably shoot up the pric es of rare earth items in no time. This will also cause manufacturing delays and rise in costs in production. Rare earth extraction is a dangerous and dirty job linked to pollution and dis placement. The toxic waste lakes can take centuries to degrade. Mining operations in Chi na have also led to mass de forestation and the destruc tion of agricultural land. Local communities suffer from high cancer rates, con taminated groundwater, and reduced farm productivity. As tensions rise, coun tries could hoard supplies, nationalise resources and forge exclusive trade enti ties. Also, the World Bank and the IMF might be pres sured to treat mineral se curity as part of economic development policy. Meanwhile, India holds an estimated 6.9 million tonnes of rare earth oxide (REO) reserves, making it the third-largest holder in the world. Only China, with about 44 million tonnes, and Bra zil, with roughly 21 million tonnes, rank ahead. Sever al other nations, including Australia with 5.7 million tonnes, Russia with 3.8 million tonnes, Vietnam at 3.5 million tonnes, and the United States with close to 1.9 million tonnes. In 2024, India produced approximately 2,900 tonnes of rare earths, placing it sev enth among global produc ers. China continues to dom inate production, extracting around 270,000 tonnes dur ing the same period. The United States fol lowed with 45,000 tonnes, while Myanmar produced about 31,000 tonnes. Aus tralia, Thailand, and Nigeria each recorded production levels of roughly 13,000 tonnes. Regulatory hurdles have played a central role in shaping India’s rare earth industry. For many years, mining and processing ac tivities were controlled heavily and largely man aged by Indian Rare Earths Limited (IREL). During this period, rare earth elements were often treated as sec ondary outputs rather than as strategically important materials, limiting invest ment and innovation. It is time, nations real ised that the world is not headed toward a rare earth war but the world is al ready in it. (Robin Roy is a Senior Journalist and former Senior Associate Editor, O Heraldo, Goa)
