Before the release of any new film, there is usually a trailer which is presented as a prelude. The concerned trailer could be in parts or as a composite whole. It provides crucial determinants to the full movie; often it is by itself, self-contained. In a similar verve, the Indian political scene throws up similar paradigms, perennially. The crowning event is the parliamentary election, held usually after an interregnum of five years. In between, there are several crucial state assembly elections. They provide crucial pointers, in various ways and extents, to the general elections. If a state is large and sprawling, in terms of area and population, then it importance is much the more. Such a state is Karnataka, where state elections are looming on the horizon.
The ruling BJP will try its utmost to retain power. Karnataka is a prized state for the BJP as it highlights the party’s reach beyond its traditional Hindi heartland states. Moreover, it also helps a great deal to portray the party’s heft in Southern India. As elections become propinquity in the state, it is anybody’s surmise that the two principal parties, that is the BJP and the Congress, would try to leave no stone unturned to gain political mileage. Apart from governance issues, the caste factor, regrettably, is also taken into count by most political parties. The two most powerful communities within Karnataka are the Vokkaligas and the Lingayat. Although, there have been powerful political leaders from other castes, the influence of the aforementioned two communities have been very powerful and they continue to be so.
The BJP already has a powerful representative from the Lingayat community within the party’s hierarchy in the state. That is, the current Chief Minister of the state, B S Yeddyurappa. Among its other calculations, it is working fast to retain the vote share, if not to increase, of the Vokkaligas. On the other side of the political divide, the Congress is assured of the support of the notable Kuruba community, through the presence of party veteran and former venerable Congress Chief Minister of the state, Siddaramaiah. Furthermore, the Congress seems confident of securing the votes of many among the minority communities of the state.
However, the state of the Congress party leadership is uninspiring. Its effect is bound to spill over into the party’s performance in Karnataka. To add to it, increased support to the BJP from the old Mysuru region, and several welfare and development initiatives during its governance have increased the confidence of the party as it prepares to venture on the electoral hustings. Although Karnataka has been the bastion of the Congress for several decades after independence, it has often lost out to other political parties in the state. At present, its tough competitor in the electoral arena is the BJP. But, it appears that both the BJP and the Congress could be well initiated into the politics of Karnataka, if they could acquire the support of somebody like Deveraj Urs, who was a highly effective and skillful former Chief Minister of Karnataka. Urs had many positive and certain allegedly negative qualities. If his positive qualities could be concentrated upon by any particular leader, then it would be to the state’s benefit.
Urs was a relatively unknown politician in Karnataka. He started coming to the limelight after the famous Congress split in 1969. He joined former Prime Minister, Indira Gandhi’s, faction of the Congress Party. For that faction of the party, it was victory march for a considerable period of time, thereafter. Urs came from the Ursu community of the state, whose percentage is very negligible. But, his leadership qualities and the capacity to deliver victories for the party were almost unmatched. Moreover, total loyalty to Indira Gandhi, before they fell apart, did all concerned, a world of good.
As long as Urs was in the driving seat in Karnataka, the Congress was in an unbeatable position. Once he parted company with Indira Gandhi, he had sufficient grassroots support in the state to carry on with his own faction of the Congress, then dubbed possibly as Congress (U). But, after 1979, charges of corruption and advancement in age, determined his gradual march to political retirement and oblivion. It appears that thereafter, the Congress has not been able to rope in another individual of the caliber of Urs, who was a strategist in securing political capital for his party through short cut methods. Neither was a stable administrator with widespread support like that of S. Nijalingappa present in most political parties in Karnataka.
The BJP is relatively new in terms of being in power in the state. It first won electoral victory in the state in 2008. Thereafter, it has lost and regained power. There appears to be promising individuals in the party. Most notably, is the charming young BJP MP from South Bengaluru constituency, Tejaswi Surya. He appears to have the drive and the enthusiasm to secure political victories for his party. Furthermore, he is articulate and presentable. Political stability is the key for the BJP; that will enable it to gain greater political support from the people of that state.
As far as the Congress is concerned, its political appeal has faded from many quarters at present. People mostly look at the party and they do not find sufficient leaders with strong regional bases. The party leadership also does not emanate confidence a significant section of the electorate. Mr. Siddaramaiah is a popular leader of the Congress in Karnataka; but, even then, it is unclear, at present, what extent of support he would be able to garner for his party in that state.
Whoever wins Karnataka would be able to increase its political heft and look with greater confidence towards general elections, scheduled in the spring of 2024. As for the people of Karnataka, they are bound to be happy with any political dispensation which provides good, effective, and clean governance.
(The author is a columnist
with specializations in
International Affairs, the
Economy, Indian politics, and certain feature topics)
