As a superb New York Times article analyses it succinctly, no one on the planet can explain why some countries got walloped by the virus and why some got just a little rap on the knuckles.
The temperature postulate of tropical vs temperate climates doesn’t hold true always. Neither does the BCG vaccine hypothesis. Initially, one thought only elderly folk succumbed, but mass burials in the US, Ecuador, Brazil tell us the middle aged are also vulnerable. China, South Korea, Australia, NZ are reporting negligible cases, so their lockdown is credited for the success. But if the break in transmission theory holds good, then the herd immunity theory goes out of the window.
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Both are mutually exclusive.
I.E. All those locked up citizens never exposed to the virus, who are now coming out in society, should logically contract the virus, since they have no herd immunity to it but that ain’t happening. A silver lining to cling onto, in this cloud of despair! There is no vaccine, no definitive drug yet, no silver bullet on the horizon. The only certainty about this virus is that it is treacherous, diabolical and always a moving target, impossible to comprehend. But open up we must, I guess.
By all accounts our economy has taken a devastating battering, we have very little legroom for fiscal maneuver and an epidemic of hunger awaits our most vulnerable citizens. The continuous lockdown, till cases across the country go down to zero is simply impossible. There will be food riots across the spectrum, no government will be able to control. The economy must start churning again.
So as it does, in Goa, here’s my wish list for ourselves:
u We can lessen our panic. All this, while we were virtually holding our breath so as not to inhale the virus. We can breathe a wee bit easier now, but we cannot stop being vigilant and aware.
u The usual mantra of hand washing, sanitisers, social distancing, isolating if you have a fever and cough cannot be overemphasized.
u Once borders open, and Goans go back to base, and if home quarantined if COVID-19 negative, that quarantine must be strictly obeyed. No Goan disobedience, no Goan wise guy attitude please. Villagers must be aware, who is being home quarantined and report to the authorities, if anyone is found violating it. This is for the safety of the community, so if you have to snitch, so be it.
u There can be no succumbing to demands, if the situation holds up, for any large scale gatherings, under any circumstances. No festas, no zatras, no community Eid (though I will request my Muslim friends to not forget me for the customary biryani), no sporting events, no cinemas. Nada, nothing. It took one football match in Italy for the virus to be imported to Spain; and one lady who was sick at the Korean religious ceremony, to spread it to South Korea. We are familiar with our Tablighi fiasco.
u For the elderly folk still locked in, I know you are going nuts. In your twilight years, you are not even allowed to see the sun, as it were. But do not venture out unless mandatory, till the coast is completely clear. At least for another month. You can have a few neighbourhood friends over for a drink or meal and talk about everything under the sun – except, the wretched virus. That will keep your sanity intact.
u For the thousands of migrants returning home on their own dime, our tears and moral outrage is not enough to mitigate their plight. Could I urge Goa Inc or India Inc to pick the rail fare tab of all desperate migrants returning home? What is that cost? A few crores. You are going to be saving so much this year. No fairy tale weddings, no IPL, no football league, no designer outfits or jewellery (who’s going to see all that other than your maids), no plastic smiles on page 3. So spend all that money saved to alleviate the plight of these stranded, marginalised fellow citizens. Go on, we know you have a heart. Just make it beat and make it count.
u And a request from all frontline workers. Expensive rose petals may be a smart gimmick, but what absolutely matters is easy availability of PPE (Personal Protective Equipment) and medicines and for every citizen to follow rules to keep us safe. So, in sum, the nightmare is by no way over. This virus could still return and devastate (hopefully if we get a positive COVID tomorrow, we don’t knee jerk shut all of Goa down but isolate and quarantine just the contacts and localised vaddo from where the patient comes from).
It’s a long, arduous, and extremely difficult road ahead guys and gals. We are all still walking on a dangerous mine field; No question. It all depends on how smartly and cunningly we outwit the virus. Fasten your seat belts and hopefully the oxygen masks won’t have to be deployed. But it’s going to be a very, very rough ride!
