Monsoon delayed, to hit Kerala by June 5

PANJIM: The National Weather Forecasting Centre of the India Meteorological Department has predicted a delayed monsoon this year. As per the IMD forecast, the monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on June 5.

“This year, the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala is likely to be slightly delayed as compared to normal date of onset of June 1. The monsoon onset over Kerala this year is likely to be on June 5 with a model error of 4 days,” IMD said.

As per the forecast, Goa could see the monsoon arrive between June 8 and 10.

IMD’s operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala during the past 15 years (2005-2019) proved to be correct except in 2015. 

As per IMD, the Indian monsoon region, initial monsoon rains are experienced over south Andaman Sea and the monsoon winds then advance in a north-westwards across the Bay of Bengal and as per the new normal dates of monsoon onset/progress, the southwest monsoon advances over the Andaman Sea around May 22. 

“At present, a well-marked low-pressure area lies over southeast Bay of Bengal and its neighbourhood. It is very likely to concentrate into a depression over the same region during next 12 hours and further intensify into a cyclonic storm over central parts of south Bay of Bengal by May 16. Associated with this event, conditions are likely to become favourable for advance of Southwest Monsoon into the Andaman Sea, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and some parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, during next 48 hours. Past data suggest that there is no association of the date of monsoon advance over the Andaman Sea either with the date of monsoon onset over Kerala or with the seasonal monsoon rainfall over the country,” it says.