The southwest monsoon is likely to arrive early over Kerala this year, with the India Meteorologi cal Department forecasting its onset on May 26 — nearly six days ahead of the normal date of June 1. In a press release issued on Thursday, the Ministry of Earth Sciences said the forecast was generated using an indigenously developed state-of-the-art statistical model with an error margin of (+ or –) four days. The onset of the south west monsoon over Kerala marks the official beginning of the monsoon season over the Indian mainland and signals the transition from peak summer heat to wide spread rainfall across the country.
According to the IMD, the forecast model analyses six key atmospheric and ocean ic parameters that influence the onset of the monsoon. These include minimum temperatures over northwest India, pre-monsoon rainfall activity over the south penin sula, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) patterns, and low er tropospheric wind conditions over the Indian Ocean and adjoining regions. The weather department said its operational forecasts for monsoon onset over Kerala have remained largely ac curate since 2005, barring one major exception in 2015. Over the last six years in particular, the forecast dates have closely aligned with the actual onset.
