In the First-Past-The-Post system that India follows, it is the seat count that matters and not the percentage of votes polled. Election results can, therefore see a party with a lesser percentage of votes gaining a larger number of seats. It has happened in the past, 2017 being an instance, when Congress emerged as the single largest party but stood second in the vote share.
Speaking to Herald, Principal Dr Manoj Kamat asserted that there is no relation between the votes polled and the seats won by the party. If a political party polls more votes, then its vote share will definitely increase and vice versa. In elections, the voter share of any political party will depend on number of seats it contested and the difference of votes between the winner and the loser.
Kamat further said that the current trend is that the people vote for individuals who can deliver and not for the party. The party votes alone cannot help any candidate to win election.
So, while political parties concentrate on winning seats and hence stress on winnable candidates, rather than vote share, as that helps them muster a simple majority to assume power, it is interesting to take a look at the votes they polled, and what can be observed by even a causal glance it that it has been fluctuating.
Professor of Political Science, Ketan Govekar, pointed out to the flaws in the electoral system. He said that in India’s First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) system a candidate is declared winner by a simple majority. In such a situation whether there is an increase or decrease in voting percentage it does not matter to political parties or candidates due to First-Past-The-Post system.
To illustrate this one has to merely look at the 2017 results where the Congress won the maximum seats, getting to the figure of 17 but its vote share dropped that election. In the 2012 election, the Congress could not achieve the double-digit figure but its voter share dropped by just two per cent ie 30.78 per cent as against 32.25 per cent voter share in the 2007 polls.
Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJPs) voter share had shot up to 34.68 per cent in 2012 election when for the first time the party achieved simple majority of 21 seats.
The BJP voting percentage had increased despite reverses it suffered in the 2017 Assembly elections. The BJP which had polled 34.88 per cent vote share in 2012 polls saw its voting percentage declining in 2017 polls.
Academician Naguesh Sardesai said that a slight drop in votes share of Congress in the last two Assembly polls was primarily due to system of representation followed in the country. He said First-Past-The-Post system enables the party to secure more votes and it does not translate into more seats. This is due to emergence of number of regional political parties in the elections which focus more on regional issues and voter’s choice is more towards these outfits. As a result it is observed that Congress in spite of drop in vote share won highest 17 seats in 2017 elections. Also the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) and Goa Forward Party (GFP) also opened its account.
This factor is the main drawback of the electoral system in which popularity of a party across the State does not always enable them to get the desired number of seats. The political parties might have lost elections in certain constituencies by a wafer thin margin thereby leading to a position where votes polled do not always translate into seats won, said Sardesai.
The major victim has been the oldest regional MGP, whose voting percentage is on a decline. In the 2007 elections, the MGP polled 8.65 per cent votes but five years later despite forging a pre-poll alliance with the BJP, its vote share slightly dropped to 6.72 per cent even as the party won three seats. But in 2017, the MGP won the same number of seats but its vote share jumped to 11 per cent, when it fought the polls alone.
The MGP, that is in the electoral battle since liberation winning seats in every Assembly election, has somehow not been able to strengthen its organisation across the State after its worst performance in the 1999 polls. From four seats won in 1999 the next two elections saw party winning only two seats. In 2007, the MGP’s vote share was 8.65 per cent and it plummeted to 6.72 per cent in 2012 polls as it contested only seven seats as against 26 it fought in 2007 polls.
Senior journalist Gurudas Sawal feels that in the upcoming election the MGP, following a pre-poll alliance with the Trinamool Congress Party (TMC), will cut into the BJP vote while, the Congress would suffer as Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and TMC will eat into its vote share. However, he said that that there is no voting pattern to exercise their franchise for an individual while every political party is more interested in winning maximum number of seats. In 2017 poll nobody expected that the Congress Party would win maximum number of seats and emerge as the single largest party but it was mainly due to efforts of the candidates fielded by the party. Most of the candidates win on their individual strength and they poll few traditional votes of the party.
Goa University Head of Department of Political Science Dr Rahul Tripathi said that even though the voting trends in Goa are guided more by candidates rather than party considerations, the overall voting does reflect the collective aspiration of the people.
The 2012 and 2017 Goa Assembly election results were clearly a reflection of the desire for people for change, that the political leaders put their individual gains over the party and voter aspirations speaks of the political culture that has been seeping in.
“In the absence of any coherent strategy by the opposition so far, I anticipate greater fragmentation of their votes,” Tripathi said.
Govekar is also of the opinion that often the vote share of a candidate or political party increases primarily since they have a large following and win by a large margin. He said that in some elections the level of electoral participation fluctuates as a large number of voters do not turn up. This gives a lopsided picture and the First-Past-The-Post system is not a truly representative mandate since a candidate can win even by polling less than half the votes polled.
According to Govekar, in many foreign countries there is a Right To Recall system or Post-Poll Referendum wherein electorate can remove an elected representative before his/her term ends. Sadly this viable option is not available in India, he said.
On the other hand for certain institutions in the country such as the Office of the President, Vice President and for Upper House Members, election is held as per the proportional system of representation, allowing a certain number of votes secured by the candidate i.e majority of the votes polled.
