India’s southwest monsoon has been delayed once again, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicating that it is unlikely to reach Kerala before June 3. The revised forecast marks the third postponement of the expected onset date this year. The IMD had initially predicted that the monsoon would arrive in Kerala on May 26, earlier than its normal onset date of June 1. The forecast was later shifted to May 28 and then revised again to around June 1.
However, weather conditions have remained unfavourable, forcing forecasters to push the date back once more. According to meteorologists, the primary reason for the delay is the absence of sufficiently strong westerly winds over the Arabian Sea. While parts of Kerala and Lakshadweep have already received scattered rainfall, the atmospheric conditions required for the official declaration of monsoon onset have not yet been met.
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The IMD considers three key factors before declaring the arrival of the monsoon in Kerala — widespread rainfall across designated weather stations, adequate cloud cover and sustained westerly winds of the required strength. At present, the wind conditions remain weak.Weather experts also point to a recent cyclone over the Bay of Bengal, which disrupted the organised wind flow necessary for the monsoon’s advance towards the Indian mainland.
Despite the delay, the IMD has clarified that the monsoon is officially considered late only if it fails to reach Kerala by June 8. A delay of a few days at the onset stage does not necessarily impact rainfall across the rest of the country.However, the development comes amid concerns over a strengthening El Niño, which is expected to influence weather patterns this year. The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall for the 2026 monsoon season, estimating precipitation at 90 per cent of the long-period average, raising concerns for agriculture and water resources in several parts of the country.
