Many expected Ukraine’s capital to fall within days of the invasion, but Ukrainians fought and pushed Russian troops back. They’ve continued to fight. Russia has re-strategised its approach towards war and is now focused on taking land in Ukraine’s east. Both sides have gained and lost territory over the course of the year, but now the war appears to be at an inflection point. In the past year, the West has funnelled billions in aid and weapons to Ukraine because the outcome has global consequences. Victory by Russia could mean new rules to the world order that global powers have lived by to avoid a third world war.
There had been lots of fights in Central and Eastern Europe from the mediaeval era. Ukraine had changed many hands. During the Russian revolution, it became part of it and on 30 December 1922 became one of the founding republics of the Soviet Union.
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This lasted till 1991, except for some disturbing period during Second World War when Ukrainian insurgent army fought for their independence against Germany and USSR, till the time USSR disintegrated and 12 countries of Eastern Europe came out from the USSR.
Under the changed situation, Ukraine became independent of the USSR. It inherited the third largest nuclear stockpile in the world, along with significant means of its design and production.
Following the signing of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances among the US, the UK, Russia and France, Ukraine agreed to destroy the rest of its nuclear weapons, and to join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). By 1996, Ukraine transferred all Soviet-era strategic warheads to Russia.
Consequently, the “Budapest Memorandum” which was originally signed by Russia, the UK and the US, assurances Ukraine against threats or use of force. As a result, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons
The remaining 12 republics subsequently seceded, joined the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and most of the 12 joining the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and few of them NATO.
Putin was, however, always interested on some pretext or other, to lay control on Ukraine. He started accusing Ukraine of leaning towards NATO and Europe coming eastward thus threatening the security of Russia. He claimed of prevalence of Nazism and genocide in Ukraine. He wanted to save Ukrainians and save Russia from the gradual aggression of the NATO countries.
His initial aim was to overrun Ukraine and depose its government, ending for good its desire to join the Western defensive alliance NATO. Russia apparently tried to rapidly seize Kyiv, with Spetsnaz (special Force) infiltrating into the city supported by airborne operations and a rapid mechanised advance from the north, but was unsuccessful.
Russian invasion has been virtually stalemated so far. In fact, Ukraine has launched a determined counter attack in Kherson in the south and Kharkiv in the east and north-east.
Ukrainians, under its President Volodymyr Zelenesky, have resolved to save their country from the biggest tyranny of all times. Each house has become a fort and each individual, irrespective his/her background has become a soldier. Their dedication to their country is unmatchable.
Putin’s present action has opened questions about the validity of nuclear deterrence. The sufferings of Ukraine represent a moral challenge to Europe and the world. Human rights and the UN Charter have been trampled upon and our values mocked.
This may open up a scurrying effect on small countries to acquire nuclear weapons to avoid hegemony of bigger countries. This may also lead into future uncertainty in regards to safety and security of smaller countries in front of bigger and more powerful countries.
Considering that the Russian forces have not been able to overrun Ukraine and depose President Zelensky, there is no doubt that Putin has lost the war. He has unnecessarily made his misadventure an ego issue and is not calling off the war.
He is forgetting that the more he intensifies assaults on Ukraine, the greater will be the support from the West in terms of arming it with modern and lethal weapon systems.
The Ukrainians under the leadership of Zelensky won’t back down. More this mindless war is prolonged, the greater will be the sufferings for not only Russians, but also people from the third world countries. The war has continued to cause global supply chain disruptions. As a result, the prices of essential commodities such as fuel and food have increased globally.
The world’s patience is running thin. Even Putin’s staunchest ally, Prime Minister Narendra Modi told him categorically to end the war. But he is in no mood to listen to anyone. He has enough blood on his hands. He has to stop this war for the sake of humanity, if not anything else.
