By11 am, twenty four hours or a little more or a little less, depending when you will be reading this, on March 11, we will have a more than a fair idea of which way Goa’s most closely fought, and by far the most complex election has turned out to be. But e may be still in the dark about who will form the next government
The 2017 elections will go so much down to the wire that even after the publication of three exit polls, each giving the BJP the maximum number of seats, but short of majority, the bottleneck doesn’t seem to have opened. It is clear than even pollsters have been unable to give clearer predictions, especially the Axis poll, which gives BJP 18 to 22 seats and the Congress 9 to 13 seats. In the event of the BJP getting the lower end and the Congress getting the higher end of this range, the seat difference between the two will be 5, which will still be substantial.
The exit polls haven’t looked into how seats will change depending on small but important factors like the extent of the votes received by AAP and the damage done to the BJP by the Goa Suraksha Manch and the MGP.
The exit polls are therefore an indicator but surely not a harbinger of good tidings for any political party, as far as government formation is concerned.
At this point of time all three scenarios are possible, notwithstanding the exit poll results 1) The BJP as the single largest party but short of majority 2) The Congress as the single largest party but short of majority 3) the Congress and the BJP neck and neck with a gap of one or two sets or even a tie or 4) An absolute clear majority for the BJP.
The BJP is claiming scenario 4 but hoping for scenario 1 at the very least. The Congress will come into the mix obviously with scenario 2 or 3 playing out. Meanwhile even at this late stage with the exit polls, (barring MRC Newsx giving AAP 7 seats) not being favourable to AAP, it will influence the final results in at least ten seats. And if they do pull off a few seats, the final act of government formation may see some twists and turns.
The Exit polls, however, since they are often done with very little ground level inputs, took the MGP into account very cursorily. Imagine another scenario and we call it the X Factor scenario and it is as follows. The MGP gets 6 seats and the BJP less than 14. The MGP demands the CM’s position with the BJP supporting the MGP. The Y factor is s a modification of the X factor where the MGP, as a free floating power driven party will stake claim to form the government with the Congress’ support.
What is certain though that once the results are out a lot of surprises will be in store. If the Congress starts losing people, presumably to the BJP, with the independents supporting the BJP, the Congress will have to start all over again. Whether it has the energy to carry on this momentum or not, will have to be seen,
What has already been seen and experienced is that do not write off any party in an election as close as this.
