The only difference in the Goa BJP “pre- Velingkar and post-Velingkar” is of degree not of kind. As a part of its strategy, the BJP’s top brass both in Goa, and to an extent in Delhi, has figured that elections 2017 will have to be about calculations. It has to be fought on clever social arithmetic, not on populist schemes. If the BJP has any hopes of forming a government, that road will have to be paved though the path created by new parties which are expected to split anti-BJP votes.
What the Subhash Velingkar issue has indeed done, is made the BJP press the pedal on its strategy of simply watching the AAP and Goa Forward grow and even go a step further and allow these formations to make some inroads which are manageable. While AAP will not ally with anyone, it is expected to eat into Congress votes in several constituencies. The Goa Forward, on its own, isn’t much of a threat to the BJP at all but it will in some seats in Salcete divide votes making it a three-way split between the AAP, Goa Forward and the Congress.
This incidentally is the BJP’s best bet and it is leaving, as they say “no stone unturned” to see that this strategy is pushed aggressively. The stone ‘unturning’, to stretch the cliché further, will also include galvanising party workers at the grassroots, through a series of meetings and conventions as well as doing a lot of AAP style door to door visits and street corner meetings. This would be needed since a split in opposition votes needs to be matched by some grass root galvanisation. The internal buzz in the senior party ranks is that with Subhash Velingkar, now the head of the new local wing of the RSS and opposing the BJP and the new “official” RSS Goa Vibhag Sangchalak Laxman Behre, appointed in place of Velingkar, not effusive in the RSS’ support for the BJP, the need to strengthen the BJP at the village, block and district level, is critical.
However none of this is to suggest that there are no worry lines in the BJP. Indeed they are. The very fact that such an elaborate exercise has been planned to boost confidence levels of workers, is as obvious an indication that was needed. At the same time, there are discussions taking place at the absolutely highest levels within the BJP and the RSS to minimise the damage caused by “Typhoon Velingkar”. The best the RSS can do is to maintain a distance from the BJP and not issue statements against the ruling party or oppose its candidates. And it is learnt that that the new RSS Chief Laxman Behre, will be asked to continue with the traditional RSS approach of being absolutely distant from the media.
However the bottom line here is the seriousness with which it is banking on the split in votes coupled with the possibility of some Independents and breakaway groups of winning some seats.
And finally the culmination of its project to remain in power will be its tie up with the MGP. That will be the grand finale. A failure to reach an agreement on seat sharing will be the actual body blow to BJP’s chances. If that happens even a severe split in opposition votes will not help the BJP if it is forced to contest against MGP candidates, especially in North Goa. MGP currently wants 12 seats which includes two seats where the BJP has MLAs and one seat where the sitting Congress MLA (Mauvin Godinho) is expected to contest on a BJP ticket.
These discussions, expected to be completed by September 25, will ultimately signpost BJP’s road map and be the real indicator of what voting patterns will be.
